Trump, First Former U.S. President Facing Criminal Trial... Judicial Risks Become Election Variable

Four Days a Week Court Attendance for Two Months
Jury Selected from Democratic Party Stronghold
Major Variable in Presidential Election if Guilty Verdict

Former President Donald Trump became the first ex-U.S. president to stand trial in a criminal court. This trial is related to allegations that he paid hush money to cover up a sexual scandal with a porn star in 2016. If Trump is convicted before the presidential election, it could become a significant variable in the race.

On the morning of the 14th (local time) at around 9:30 a.m., former President Trump arrived at the 15th-floor courtroom of the Manhattan District Court in New York to attend the criminal trial.

He told reporters, "This kind of thing has never happened before, and legal scholars say it’s an absurd case," adding, "This is a political prosecution." He also said, "This is an attack on America," and "I am proud to be here."

The prosecution charged Trump last March with 34 counts, alleging that he paid hush money to former porn actress Stormy Daniels to prevent her from revealing their past sexual relationship just before the 2016 presidential election, and then falsified company records related to the payment. This case is one of four criminal trials Trump faces and is the only one with a confirmed schedule before the November election.

Since the election, Trump has been trying to delay the trial or transfer the jurisdiction to a politically favorable court. On this day, he filed a motion to disqualify the presiding judge, Judge Juan Merchan, citing the judge’s daughter’s work for the Democratic Party, but the motion was denied.

During the first week of the trial, jury selection will take place. Twelve jurors and six alternate jurors will be chosen. The jury will decide whether Trump manipulated real estate company records to conceal the payment of hush money to the porn actress before the 2016 election. The court will select 12 juror candidates from hundreds of potential jurors along with prosecutors and Trump’s defense attorneys. Judge Merchan stated that he will not ask about party affiliation or which candidates the jurors voted for during jury selection.

It is noteworthy that New York is a Democratic stronghold. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, "Selecting a fair jury in a Democratic stronghold where President Biden received 87% of the vote in the 2020 election will be a challenge," adding, "A jury likely filled with Democrats could decide the fate of the Republican presidential candidate."

Former President Trump is required to attend court throughout the trial, which is expected to last about two months. The trial will be held four times a week on weekdays except Wednesdays, from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

With the start of Trump’s criminal trial, attention is also focused on its potential impact on the closely contested U.S. presidential election. According to a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll of 833 voters, President Biden leads Trump by 4 percentage points with 41% support compared to Trump’s 37%. In March, the gap was only 1 percentage point (39% vs. 38%), but it widened within a month. Biden had been trailing Trump in support since the end of last year but has shown a lead since being confirmed as the Democratic presidential candidate. In this context, if Trump is convicted in the trial, it could become a major variable affecting voter sentiment in the election.