[Click eStock] "Iran-Israel Clash Impact... WTI Forecast Raised"

It is forecasted that the backwardation of international oil prices (where near-month contract prices are higher than far-month contract prices) will strengthen due to the conflict between Iran and Israel.

On the 15th, Samsung Securities stated in a report, "Backwardation is expected to strengthen reflecting geopolitical risks," adding, "Accordingly, we have raised the upper bound of the WTI forecast to $95 per barrel."

At midnight on the 13th, Iran launched the "Promise of Truth Operation," firing drones and missiles at Israel. The Iranian mission to the United Nations stated that this attack was a response to Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. However, they also mentioned that "this issue can be considered resolved," showing an attempt to avoid escalation.

Younghoon Yeonghun, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, "If Israel makes another mistake, Iran's response could be more severe," adding that tensions in the Middle East are expected to remain. He noted, "The international community and markets will focus on Israel's future response."

Researcher Yeonghun Lee viewed that even within conflicts in the same Middle Eastern region, the impact on the oil market differs depending on whether the conflict between the two countries leads to an actual reduction in oil supply.

He explained, "The reason the two events have different impacts is whether they can lead to a real supply decrease," adding, "In the case of Russia, it is an oil-producing country producing about 10.5 million bpd, whereas Israel and Palestine are not entities that directly affect the supply and demand of the oil market."

Researcher Yeonghun Lee also stated, "Considering that Iran is a major oil producer in OPEC, the risk premium is expected to be higher than during Hamas's attack on Israel," but pointed out, "However, as of March, production is only about 3.18 million bpd and exports are also limited to about 1.5 million bpd, so the backwardation shock compared to the Russia-Ukraine war will be limited."