Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, projected that the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) surpassing human intelligence could happen as early as next year. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan Chase, known as the "Emperor of Wall Street," also compared AI to inventions like the steam engine that sparked the Industrial Revolution, predicting it will reshape the industrial landscape.
On the 8th (local time), Musk CEO stated in an interview with Nikolai Tangen, CEO of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, conducted on the social networking service X (formerly Twitter), "If AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as AI smarter than the smartest human, it might be possible within a year or two."
This timeline is much sooner than that predicted by Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, a leader in AI chip development, who recently forecasted the arrival of AGI within five years. Musk, classified as an AI optimist, expects AI capabilities to surpass all human abilities within the next five years.
Musk identified voltage transformer supply and securing power as constraints hindering AI development within the next one to two years. He pointed out that the current power grid cannot meet the increased demand driven by AI technology advancements. "Last year, there was a semiconductor constraint. People could not secure enough Nvidia chips," he said, adding, "This year, the bottleneck is shifting to power transformer supply."
Regarding the global competition in AI technology development, he predicted, "China will not fall behind the United States." About his AI startup xAI’s chatbot ‘Grok,’ he expressed confidence that "(the second version) will be better than ChatGPT-4" and expects its training to be completed by May.
On the same day, Dimon also cited the impact of AI as the first major issue in his annual shareholder letter. In the letter, he stated, "We do not know how big or how fast AI will change our industry," but added, "I am confident the impact will be enormous." He emphasized that the results AI will bring "will be as revolutionary as the major technological inventions of the past few centuries," citing "printing, the steam engine, electricity, computers, and the internet" as examples.
Dimon introduced that JP Morgan Chase currently employs more than 2,000 AI and data science experts and applies AI technology to over 400 tasks including marketing, fraud detection, and risk management. He also explained that the company is exploring the potential of generative AI to enhance productivity for all employees. Addressing concerns that AI might take away human jobs, he mentioned, "Certain jobs or roles may decrease, but other jobs could emerge."
Meanwhile, Dimon warned that U.S. interest rates could soar above 8% within a few years. He urged preparation for a rebound in inflation, citing "massive fiscal spending, global rearmament, capital demand for the green economy, and the reorganization of the global trade order" as factors driving inflation. He also diagnosed that the U.S. stock and corporate bond markets are overvalued due to excessive optimism.
Dimon has long warned that a ‘hurricane’ could hit the U.S. economy after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle. However, he recently retracted some of his pessimism as the U.S. economy showed solid growth. On this day, he mentioned extreme volatility and said the company is preparing for various scenarios, including interest rates falling to 2% or soaring above 8%.
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