[Inside Chodong] Afraid of What Comes After the General Election

This election, too, seems destined to be a retrospective vote rather than one that envisions the future. While it is true that this general election is held during the third year of the ruling government, a significant reason is that both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea have prominently positioned ‘judgment’ at the forefront. The ruling People Power Party points out that the opposition leaders, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Cho Kuk of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, are currently undergoing trials, labeling them as ‘criminals’ and insisting they must be judged. The opposition parties, on the other hand, define the current government’s administration as a ‘regression’ from livelihood issues to democracy and call for judgment.

Ultimately, the general election vote will inevitably lean toward one side, and within the limited choices, the answer will inevitably be ‘judgment’ regardless of which side it favors.

In fact, the political sphere has been rushing toward this general election since the 2022 presidential election. The ruling party aimed to seize parliamentary power riding the wave of overwhelming victories in the presidential and local elections. Having been suppressed by the large opposition party and unable to push through proper reforms, they intended to leverage parliamentary power, which controls laws and budgets, to advance reforms. Underlying this was a desire to fundamentally reclaim political power that had been on the defensive since the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye. After losing the presidential election by a margin of 0.73 percentage points and ceding local government power, the opposition party, which has also become the subject of investigations by law enforcement agencies such as the prosecution and police, dreams of a comeback by regaining parliamentary power.

The problem lies after this election. Rather than ending conflicts, the ruling and opposition parties will engage in a new level of conflict. The reasons are as follows.

First, many politicians who advocated for consensual politics in this nomination process have stepped down, and there is a high possibility that warriors of each camp will enter the parliament en masse under the name of ‘purge.’ Rather than feeling uncomfortable with the classifications of pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) and pro-Myung (pro-Lee Jae-myung), they are likely to emphasize these divisions openly to highlight their clarity and ignite a combative line. Those who spoke of dialogue and negotiation and who voiced diverse opinions within their parties were largely excluded during the nomination process.

Second, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, which will compete for clarity with the Democratic Party by saying ‘three years is too long,’ is likely to become the third party. While we need to watch the seat distribution by party, the more the Cho Kuk Innovation Party holds the casting vote, the more the ‘judgment theory’ will dominate the 22nd National Assembly. Conversely, the negotiation theory, which could talk about restoring parliamentary politics, will inevitably narrow.

Until now, the political sphere has referred to itself as the ‘worst National Assembly’ and tried to change the political structure through electoral reform, but ultimately failed. In a political structure polarized to extremes, the political reform movement born from the self-deprecating notion that ‘nothing works no matter what we try’ was overwhelmed by party interests focused on ‘winning.’

Those who have been in politics for a long time lament, “Back then, even though we fought during the day, at night we would share soju and worry about the country’s affairs.” However, nowadays politicians avoid meeting not only members of opposing parties but also those within their own parties who hold different views. How can we enable lawmakers to cross the threshold of opposition party offices to engage in dialogue and exchange opinions? This is the challenge facing the good people who will open the 22nd National Assembly.