Most 25-26-Year-Olds Are Already Serving
Youth Population Too Small... Only One-Third of Middle-Aged Population
Birth Rate of Just 1.16 Likely to Decline Further
The Ukrainian government’s recent decision to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25 has sparked controversy. Since most men aged 25 to 26, who are newly subject to conscription, are already serving, concerns are growing that the measure is ineffective and that a sharp decline in birth rates will cause long-term demographic problems. Alongside criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration’s war capabilities, public opposition to the expansion of the conscription age is also emerging.
"460,000 Ukrainian men aged 25-26... Most already serving"
On the 5th (local time), major foreign media including The New York Times (NYT) highlighted the ongoing protests inside and outside Ukraine against the amendment to the military service law. President Zelensky signed the amendment, which lowers the conscription age from the current 27 and above to 25 and above. The Ukrainian government plans to replenish troops by expanding the conscription age to resist Russia’s invasion.
President Zelensky stated, "We need to recruit 450,000 to 500,000 troops," adding, "We do not intend to conscript women, but women with medical education must register for conscription." With Russia expected to launch a major offensive again in spring and summer, the Ukrainian military is in urgent need of new recruits.
However, there are criticisms that even lowering the conscription age will not make it possible to reach the recruitment target. Most men aged 25 to 26 have already voluntarily enlisted and are serving, so the number of additional men available for conscription is small.
Nataliya Tylikina, director of the Ukrainian National Institute for Family and Youth Policy, told the NYT, "According to the population estimates announced by the Ukrainian government in 2022, the total population of 25-26-year-olds is about 467,000, but many of them are already serving or have fled outside Ukraine," adding, "Those remaining are either trapped in Russian-occupied territories, exempt from conscription due to military-related jobs, or exempted because of illness or disability."
Ukraine struggles to find people born in the 1990s... Middle-aged men outnumber young men by threefold
The small number of men in their 20s in Ukraine’s population structure is also pointed out as a limitation of the military service law amendment. Because there are very few people born in the 1990s, lowering the conscription age will not significantly increase troop numbers. According to the NYT, Ukraine, a former Eastern Bloc country, became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, but political and economic turmoil continued for about a decade, during which birth rates sharply declined. As a result, the population aged 10 to 20 is still much smaller than the middle-aged and older population over 30.
According to population statistics compiled by the Ukrainian government in 2022, the male population aged 15 to 29 is about 3.37 million, while the population aged 30 to 59 reaches 9.15 million. The young population is only about one-third the size of the middle-aged population. The current Ukrainian military, including standing army and conscripts, numbers about one million, but its average age is 43, which is higher than other countries where the average age is usually in the 20s or 30s.
Even before the war, birth rates were barely above 1... Severe concerns over low birth rates
Given these demographic challenges, if the conscription age continues to be lowered, there are concerns that Ukraine will face a serious low birth rate problem in the future. According to the World Bank’s fertility rate data, Ukraine’s birth rate had already fallen below 2.0 in 1989, recording 1.94, marking the start of the low birth rate issue. Just before the war in 2022, it was 1.16, significantly lower than other Eastern European countries such as Russia (1.50) and Poland (1.33).
Ukraine’s birth rate may have fallen below 1 during the recent war. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the number of newborns in Ukraine from January to June last year was 96,755, a drop of more than 28% compared to the same period the previous year. The monthly average number of newborns, which was about 23,000, fell to around 16,000. The eastern region, where major industrial facilities are concentrated, has been occupied by Russia, and more than 10 million people have fled abroad to escape the war.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
