Even Business Leaders Are "Preparing," but Lee Jaemyung Says "Xie Xie" [The Editors' Verdict]

Viewing the Cross-Strait Conflict as Our Own Issue is Essential
The "Pro-U.S. vs. Pro-China" Ideological Frame is Dangerous

Economic research institute Economics under the U.S. economic media Bloomberg released an analysis earlier this year stating that if China invades Taiwan and the U.S. intervenes, the global economy's gross domestic product (GDP) could evaporate by about $10 trillion (approximately 1,300 trillion won). Particularly noteworthy was the prediction that South Korea's GDP would shrink by 23.3%, suffering the second-largest impact after Taiwan (40% decrease). China's GDP decline was forecasted at 16.7%, Japan's at 13.5%, and the U.S.'s at 6.7%. A significant portion of the economic damage to South Korea is expected to stem from shocks related to the semiconductor industry. Considering the semiconductor sector's share in our economy, it is difficult to gauge how far the aftershocks will extend beyond the visible initial impact.

A simulation report released a year ago by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), assuming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, starkly reminds us that the cross-strait conflict could soon become an issue and physical threat to South Korea. The report predicted that if China invades Taiwan, two out of the four combat fighter squadrons of the U.S. Forces Korea would be mobilized to participate in the combat. It also warned that if China deploys its navy to blockade Taiwan, the U.S. might utilize geographically close South Korean bases such as Osan Air Base, Gunsan Air Base, and Jeju Naval Base.

Such a scenario naturally suggests that the battlefield could expand to the Korean Peninsula, either directly or indirectly. Considering Russia, which has already experienced the "taste of war," and North Korea, which might follow the moves of China and Russia, the situation escalates into a more complex high-order equation. John Aquilino, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated last week to the House Armed Services Committee that "all signs indicate that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered preparations to complete the invasion of Taiwan by 2027."

Lee Jae-myung (center), leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is campaigning during his visit to Dangjin City, Chungnam Province on the 22nd. (Photo by Yonhap News)

Amid this, the ‘Xie Xie (謝謝, thank you)’ remark by Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is surprising. What kind of thoughts lie behind comments such as "Why bother China?" "Just say ‘Xie Xie,’ and say ‘Xie Xie’ to Taiwan too," and "Whatever happens in the Taiwan Strait or domestic issues in China and Taiwan, what does it have to do with us?"

Floor leader Hong Ik-pyo explained that "Leader Lee used a more entertaining expression on the spot to easily convey it to the public," but this should not be dismissed as merely a ‘fun’ political rhetoric. If that was truly the intention, it underestimates the public’s understanding of the issue by a large margin. Can the attitude of simply ‘listening’ to the lengthy speech by Chinese Ambassador Xing Haiming last June, where he said, "Some bet that the U.S. will win and China will lose, but they will surely regret it later," be unrelated to this statement?

If this is based on outdated ideological theories such as "conservatives are pro-American, progressives are pro-China," it is extremely dangerous. It would have been more understandable if the government had been questioned about "how it is preparing for contingencies" or "plans to protect our citizens, companies, and related facilities in Taiwan or China in emergencies." Even Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, a prominent businessman, has mentioned "preparing for the worst" regarding cross-strait issues. Yet, the leader of South Korea’s main opposition party, who almost became president and still seems to aspire to be president, says "Xie Xie" and "what does it matter?"