[General Election Battleground] ① Win in the Hangang Belt to Win the General Election

Attention on Voter Sentiment in 11 Electoral Districts Along the Han River
Ruling and Opposition Parties Finalize Matchups After Strategic Deliberation
Public Opinion Likely to Fluctuate Depending on Current Political Issues

The area that both ruling and opposition parties consider the key battleground in this general election is the metropolitan area, especially Seoul. In particular, an ultra-close contest is unfolding in the constituencies along the Han River.

The Han River belt refers to 11 constituencies including Mapo-gu (Gap and Eul), Yeongdeungpo-gu (Gap and Eul), Dongjak-gu (Gap and Eul), Yongsan-gu, Jung-gu·Seongdong-gu (Gap and Eul), and Gwangjin-gu (Gap and Eul). In the 2020 general election, the Democratic Party won all except Yongsan-gu. However, in the presidential election two years ago, President Yoon Seok-yeol defeated Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung and won in all seven districts of the Han River belt. It is a swing voter region where the outcome is decided by a narrow margin. Depending on the flow in the Han River belt, voter sentiment in Gangbuk or Gangnam may also be influenced.

What is the current situation?

According to a compilation by Asia Economy of recent opinion polls related to the Han River belt, constituencies such as Mapo-gu Gap, Dongjak-gu Gap, and Jung-gu·Seongdong-gu Gap show a close race within the margin of error. (See table)

In Mapo Gap, former police chief Lee Ji-eun of the Democratic Party received 43.7% in the poll, while People Power Party lawmaker Jo Jeong-hoon received 41.5%. In Dongjak Gap, Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Byung-gi has 39.6%, closely trailing People Power Party-affiliated lawyer Jang Jin-young, who recorded 45.5%. In Jung-Seongdong Gap, former Democratic Party lawmaker Jeon Hyun-hee has 42.9%, and former People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook has 36.6%, continuing the close contest.

However, some areas show a relatively large gap in support rates. In Mapo Eul, Democratic Party lawmaker Jeong Cheong-rae leads with 45.6%, ahead of People Power Party-affiliated Ham Woon-kyung, chairman of the Democratic Movement Comrades Association, who has 30.9%. In Dongjak Eul, former People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won is polling at 50%, leading former police chief Ryu Sam-young of the Democratic Party, who has 37%. In Gwangjin Eul, Democratic Party lawmaker Go Min-jung is ahead with 43%, compared to 32% for former People Power Party lawmaker Oh Shin-hwan.

For constituencies where candidate lineups were completed relatively late, such as Yeongdeungpo-gu Gap and Eul, Jung-Seongdong Eul, and Gwangjin Gap, further opinion poll results need to be observed.

What are the key points to watch?

The Han River belt is characterized by both ruling and opposition parties either deciding candidates very quickly or, after primaries or internal conflicts, deciding candidates very late. This reflects the importance of the election and the parties’ efforts to field their strongest possible candidates.

For example, in Gwangjin Eul, candidates from both parties were confirmed as early as the 15th of last month. Notably, this area was where lawmaker Go won against current Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon four years ago. This time, former lawmaker Oh Shin-hwan, who served as Seoul’s vice mayor and worked closely with Mayor Oh, is running, making it a “rematch.”

In Mapo Gap, four current and former People Power Party lawmakers competed, with lawmaker Jo Jeong-hoon ultimately becoming the candidate. The opponent, former police chief Lee Ji-eun, was also decided after many twists and turns. Incumbent lawmaker Roh Woong-rae was cut off from the primary and even staged a hunger strike. In Mapo Eul, Kim Kyung-yul, an accountant and emergency committee member of the People Power Party, initially expressed his intention to run but withdrew due to controversies related to remarks about Kim Geon-hee’s luxury handbag allegations. As an alternative, Ham Woon-kyung, a former activist who has also voiced criticism of the activist movement, was first nominated.

In Yongsan-gu, where People Power Party lawmaker Kwon Young-se and former Seoul vice mayor Kang Tae-woong of the Democratic Party face off, and in Dongjak Gap, where Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Byung-gi and People Power Party lawyer Jang Jin-young compete, as well as Yeongdeungpo Eul, where Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Min-seok and former MBC anchor Park Yong-chan of the People Power Party face each other, rematches from the last general election are taking place.

Jung-Seongdong Gap, which attracted public attention due to former presidential chief of staff Lim Jong-seok’s potential candidacy, will see a contest between female candidates. The People Power Party has nominated former lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook, while the Democratic Party strategically nominated former Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission chair Jeon Hyun-hee.

Additionally, the performance of third-party candidates in the Han River belt elections is also a point of interest. In Mapo Eul, Green Party lawmaker Jang Hye-young, who entered the National Assembly through proportional representation in the last general election, is challenging the two major party candidates. In Yeongdeungpo Gap, besides People Power Party lawmaker Kim Young-joo and former Yeongdeungpo district mayor Chae Hyun-il of the Democratic Party, former Reform New Party lawmaker Heo Eun-ah has also thrown her hat in the ring. In Dongjak Gap, former Blue House political secretary Jeon Byung-heon, who served three consecutive terms in Dongjak from the 17th to 19th National Assembly, left the Democratic Party and is running as a New Future candidate.

Which way will the voter sentiment go?

In the metropolitan area, as issues like comprehensive real estate tax and soaring real estate prices weaken, current issues and candidate competitiveness are expected to influence voter sentiment. Nationwide opinion polls have shown fluctuating sentiment in the metropolitan area. With about 20 days left until the general election, metropolitan voter sentiment may continue to fluctuate depending on political issues and the political situation. Accordingly, the Han River belt’s situation may also be volatile.

For example, according to a Realmeter poll conducted on the 18th (commissioned by Energy Economy, surveying 1,000 voters aged 18 and over nationwide from the 14th to 15th, with 97% mobile and 3% landline automated responses), the People Power Party’s support in Seoul dropped by 7.6 percentage points from 38.6% to 31.0%. The political sphere attributes this to controversies such as the “escape appointment” of former Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop as Australian ambassador.

For detailed information on the opinion polls mentioned in this article, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.