[New York Diary] The Shrinking 'Big Apple'

'The Big Apple (nickname for New York City) has shrunk.'

The population of New York City is declining. According to recent census data, 78,000 people left New York last year, reducing the city's population to 8.26 million. Although the decrease was smaller than the 126,000 who left in 2022, the 'New York exodus' is still ongoing. Local media report that three-quarters of the population decline in New York State is attributed to New York City. Among the city's five boroughs, only Manhattan saw a population increase of 3,000, while Queens, Brooklyn, The Bronx, and Staten Island all experienced population decreases. The Bronx lost 25,000 residents last year, accounting for 1.9% of its population.

Why is the Big Apple shrinking? Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of remote work has led more people to leave the city for the suburbs, and the population decline has continued even after the pandemic. From April 2020 to July 2023, over 550,000 people, more than 6% of New York City's population, left the city. The primary reason cited is the exorbitant cost of living. Middle- and low-income residents, unable to afford high rents and living expenses, are moving to other cities. According to the Fiscal Policy Institute, in 2022, the majority of those leaving New York City were middle- and low-income earners with incomes between $32,000 and $65,000. The proportion of Black and Hispanic residents among them was overwhelmingly high.

High-income earners are also leaving New York. Many New Yorkers are relocating to states with lower tax rates to avoid the city's high taxes. For high-income residents in New York City, the top income tax rate reaches 15%, and when combined with federal taxes, it approaches nearly 60%. As a result, a significant number of New Yorkers are moving to states with lower tax rates such as Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Last year alone, more than 58,500 people switched their New York driver's licenses to Florida licenses. Even Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York State, a Democrat who was not known for fiscal conservatism, expressed concern that excessive tax increases were driving people out of the city.

Recently, the influx of refugees has also become a concern. Rapid immigration from Latin America, Africa, and other regions has led New York City authorities to provide ongoing support that some describe as 'pouring water into a bottomless pit.' According to New York City, an average of $387 per household per month has been spent on immigrant support over the past two years. As of this week, the city is protecting 64,600 immigrants. Some New Yorkers complain that the surge in immigration has led to wasted tax revenue and increased crime, making New York a harder place to live. Public safety in New York City is also deteriorating. Following a series of violent crimes, including shootings at subway stations, New York State deployed a 1,000-strong force of National Guard and police officers to conduct passenger and baggage inspections in the subway system.

Seoul faces similar issues. Due to soaring housing prices, more people are leaving Seoul for Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, causing the population to fall below 10 million in 2016. The era of '10 million Seoul' has passed. In terms of rapid urban expansion, soaring housing prices and living costs, and population outflow, New York and Seoul share similar challenges. As the Big Apple shrinks, opinions differ on whether New York is in decline. Many believe that the population decrease signals the beginning of New York's decline. However, some experts suggest that the pandemic-driven population outflow has stabilized and that increased immigration may signal the resumption of long-term growth. Between urban decline and growth, which direction is New York heading?