[General Election Battleground]⑮ Remembering Gwangsan's '0.73%'…"Lee Nak-yeon is a Traitor" VS "What Did Min Hyung-bae Do?"

Gwangsan-gu, Gwangju Emerging as a Battleground Due to Lee Nak-yeon's Candidacy
Average Age 39.5, Increased Floating Voters Also a Variable

"A gentleman who left the Democratic Party should go to Jongno and fight fiercely, whether he lives or dies. Everyone is baffled as to why he wants to run here (in the election)."(Mr. Lee, 71, who runs a gukbap restaurant at Bia 5-day Market)

"Did Min Hyung-bae, who is a true pro-Lee Jae-myung (Jjinmyeong), do anything when he was the district mayor? The local economy here has completely collapsed. It seems he just got the nomination and expects to win here, but that won't work easily anymore."(Taxi driver Mr. Choi, 53)

Voters met in Gwangju on the 13th were generally cold toward the two candidates in Gwangsan-eul. Candidate Lee Nak-yeon, who has been labeled a traitor since the 20th presidential election, and the Democratic Party of Lee Jae-myung are not well-liked, but voters seemed conflicted as they still consider Min Hyung-bae, a pro-Lee incumbent local assembly member, as 'our party.' This general election has turned Gwangsan-eul into the biggest battleground in the Honam region. This is because Lee, who left the Democratic Party and founded the 'New Future' party, declared his candidacy in Gwangsan-eul. With a former party leader and a current local assembly member, who once shared the same party, now competing against each other, voters' opinions are also divided.

On the 13th, residents were shopping at the Gwangju Songjeong 5-day Market. (Photo by Dongwoo Lee)

Mr. Hyun (57), a resident of Suwan-dong, Gwangsan-gu, had strong aversion toward candidate Lee. He said, "Everyone here remembers how Lee Nak-yeon acted when Lee Jae-myung ran for president." He added, "Even if he lost in the primary, if he had supported Lee Jae-myung, would the margin have been just 0.73%? Now he asks for votes, which is outrageous." Mr. Choi (52), whom we met at Songjeong 5-day Market, responded coldly, "He should have gone to Yeonggwang, which was his own district, or Jeonnam, where he was governor. I wonder why he chose Gwangju. It seems like he is underestimating this place (Gwangsan-eul)."

However, it is uncertain whether the aversion toward candidate Lee will translate into support for candidate Min. Mr. Lee (49), who runs a fruit and vegetable store at Songjeong Market, said, "Of course, 'our party' here is the Democratic Party, but Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of DJ (the late former President Kim Dae-jung) and Roh Moo-hyun are different," and criticized, "Nothing has changed in the local economy since Min was elected." Taxi driver Mr. Choi (53) said, "It's a mistake to think that the Democratic Party automatically guarantees votes. People are not supporting Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party; rather, their resentment toward the current Yoon Seok-youl government is greater."

Not all comments from voters were critical of the two candidates. Mr. Kim (72), who runs a restaurant near Bia 5-day Market, said, "Candidate Min has consistently protected the Democratic Party," and defended him by saying, "Others call it 'fake resignation' or 'trick resignation,' but didn't he fight with his whole body against prosecutors who control the country?" Mrs. Lee (38), a housewife living in Cheomdan 2-dong, said, "I don't know much, but I hope a candidate with the weight of having served as Prime Minister would come to our district and raise their voice," and supported candidate Lee by adding, "For stable regional development, I hope a well-known figure from the central government would highlight local issues more."

Banners of the Democratic Party of Korea and New Future hanging at the intersection in Suwan-dong, Gwangsan-gu.
Photo by Dongwoo Lee

Decreased Democratic Party Support... Increased Swing Voters as a Variable

It is important to carefully observe the recent changes in local voter sentiment. Gwangsan-eul in Gwangju has been a stronghold of the Democratic Party and has produced many progressive politicians. In the 19th general election, Lee Yong-seop of the Democratic United Party defeated Hwang Cha-eun of the Unified Progressive Party. Former People Power Party lawmaker Kwon Eun-hee won the 2014 by-election and the 20th general election under the New Politics Alliance for Democracy and the People's Party, respectively. In the 21st general election, Min won against Roh Seung-il of the Minsaeng Party. In the 20th presidential election, then-candidate Lee Jae-myung led Yoon Seok-youl by more than 70 percentage points.

However, recently, support for the Democratic Party in Honam (Gwangju and Jeolla) has been unstable. According to a Gallup Korea poll released on the 15th (conducted nationwide from the 12th to 14th with 1,002 respondents aged 18 and over, 100% mobile phone interviews), support for the Democratic Party in Honam was 48%, down 5 percentage points from 53% in the survey conducted from the 27th to 29th of last month. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

While support for the Democratic Party has decreased, the proportion of undecided voters has risen sharply to the 20% range. This means that the Democratic Party cannot be guaranteed a win automatically. Honam voters have experience supporting a third party in previous elections. The election of former lawmaker Kwon is a representative example. In the 20th general election, the third-party People's Party, led by then-lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, created a wave largely supported by Honam voters. Mr. Kim (33), a bank employee working in Suwan-dong, said, "I don't think I will vote for the Democratic Party unconditionally. I will look at policies and people and choose someone who practically helps the region."

Average Resident Age 39.5... Youth Vote is Key

The youth, who make up the majority of Gwangsan-gu, are also a key variable. The average age of residents in Gwangsan-gu is 39.5 years. Gwangsan-eul especially includes Cheomdan 1 and 2-dong. Capturing the votes of the 20s and 30s generations increases the chances of winning the general election. A representative of candidate Lee said, "On the 19th, candidate Lee will meet with political science and diplomacy students at Chonnam National University to listen to the difficulties faced by young people." Candidate Lee mentioned regional pledges such as △relocation of the military airport △support for the second phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) project △support for Gwangju-Jeonnam cooperation. He said, "I entrust my fate to the citizens of Gwangju," and "I will live my life according to the orders of the citizens of Gwangju."

Candidate Min pledged to expand the production base centered on AI and future car industries for the development of Gwangju and Gwangsan. Specifically, he plans to attract the second phase of the AI cluster project in Cheomdan 3 district through the enactment of the AI Technology Basic Act. He also aims to secure future growth engines by fostering Gwangju's AI core strategic industries such as automobiles, energy, healthcare, and semiconductors, and to promote the future car national industrial complex and the specialized materials-parts-equipment (SoBuJang) complex. Candidate Min explained, "We will revitalize local small businesses and secure quality jobs," adding, "In particular, we will improve the youth job guarantee system in the region and expand youth hiring opportunities through corporate employment promotion."