The Russian presidential election, which will confirm the fifth term of President Vladimir Putin, the "modern-day Tsar," begins on the 15th. With Putin's victory all but assured, the key issue is the vote share.
According to the Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) on the 14th, this election will be held over three days from the 15th to the 17th, covering 112.3 million voters across mainland Russia, leased and occupied territories, and four Ukrainian regions claimed for annexation. Additionally, 1.9 million Russians residing overseas, including in the United States, will also have voting rights.
President Putin, who has been in power since 2000 including his time as Prime Minister, is running as an independent candidate this year, seeking a fifth term. If he wins this election, he will extend his rule until 2030, surpassing the 29-year record of Joseph Stalin, former General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party. Earlier, Russia's 2020 constitutional amendment paved the way for Putin to remain in power until 2036. This effectively sets the stage for a lifetime presidency.
Currently, there is no viable challenger to halt Putin's dominance. Anti-government figures such as Boris Nadezhdin were even denied candidate registration ahead of this year's election. The three candidates who did register are pro-Putin figures with minimal presence, leading to criticism that they are merely "window dressing." Alexei Navalny, considered Putin's biggest rival, mysteriously died in prison last month.
Therefore, the focus is not on whether Putin will succeed in his re-election but on his vote share. To justify the invasion of Ukraine (referred to as a special military operation), Putin needs a high vote share to demonstrate the support of the Russian people. Thomas Graham, a researcher at the American think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, said, "Winning this election is not enough for President Putin," adding, "He must win in a way that shows he is the master of Russia's political system." According to a poll released by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center VTsIOM, Putin is expected to secure 82% of the vote. Another poll also showed Putin's vote share at 80%. This would surpass his 2018 vote share of 76.7%, setting a new record.
However, Navalny's wife Yulia Navalnaya and his supporters are urging people to go to polling stations simultaneously at noon on the 17th to express opposition to President Putin, drawing attention to the potential impact on this election. This election is the first Russian presidential election to be held over three days instead of one, and online voting has been introduced for the first time. While these measures aim to increase voter turnout, there are criticisms that they make fair election monitoring more difficult and increase the risk of manipulation.
Under Putin's fifth term, the confrontation between the West and Russia is expected to intensify further. Ahead of the election, Putin issued so-called nuclear warnings to the West, stating, "If our sovereignty is threatened, Russia is always ready to use nuclear weapons." As the close ties between North Korea and Russia deepen, concerns are also rising that this could become a security threat to the Korean Peninsula.
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