[News in War History] Moldova Fears First Loss of Sovereignty in the 21st Century Amid Russian Invasion Threat

Russia Expands Occupied Territories in Ukraine Raising Fears of Escalation
Population and Military Strength Far Behind Ukraine

On the 24th of last month (local time), protests condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its two-year anniversary continued in front of the Russian Embassy in Chi?in?u, the capital of Moldova.
[Image source=EPA·Yonhap News]

As the war in Ukraine has passed its second year, Russia has begun pushing Ukraine back on the eastern front, raising concerns across Europe about the possibility of a wider conflict. In particular, Moldova, a neighboring country to Ukraine and known as the poorest country in Europe, is worried about a direct invasion by Russia.

Like Ukraine, Moldova is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and as a small country with a population and military strength less than one-tenth of Ukraine's, there are fears that it would be unable to withstand a direct Russian invasion. There is also growing fear that the war is entering a countdown phase as the pro-Russian separatist region on the eastern border has requested protection from Russia.

In this segment, we will explore the history and current reality of Moldova, which gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union but now faces increasing threats of Russian invasion and loss of sovereignty.

Transnistria Requests Protection from Russia: "Under Careful Review"

On the 28th of last month (local time), the parliament of Transnistria (Russian name: Pridnestrovie), a pro-Russian separatist region in Moldova, held a special session and adopted a resolution seeking assistance from Russia. [Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

First, let's look at the news. On the 28th (local time), according to AFP, the parliament of Transnistria (known in Russian as Pridnestrovie), a pro-Russian separatist region on Moldova's eastern border, held a special session and adopted a resolution requesting assistance from Russia.

The reason for adopting this resolution is said to be Moldova's recent economic warfare using tariffs. They claim that earlier this year, the Moldovan government imposed tariffs on goods exported to Transnistria and restricted transportation to routes controlled by the Moldovan government, thereby exerting social and economic pressure.

The Russian Foreign Ministry promptly responded to Transnistria's plea for help. The ministry emphasized, "Protecting the interests of Transnistrian citizens is one of Russia's priorities," and added, "All requests will be carefully reviewed by the relevant departments." This has increased concerns that a Russian invasion could actually commence.

Rome, Huns, Hungary, Mongols, Ottoman Turks, Russia... Countless Changes of Rulers

[Image source=U.S. Department of State website]

It is rare to see such a standoff between a central government and a regional government within one country. This unusual phenomenon can be seen as a tragedy born from Moldova's complex history.

Moldova shares its history with Romania and was part of a region called Dacia during the ancient Greek and Roman eras. After Roman rule, various tribes such as the Goths, Huns, Avars, Bulgars, Magyars, Cumans, and Rus invaded and passed through this area. In the 13th century, it was also invaded by the Mongols. Because it served as a gateway from Ukraine to Western Europe, many different peoples came and went.

In 1359, the Principality of Moldavia was established, which is known as the predecessor state of modern Romania, and this marked the beginning of ethnic identity formation in both Romania and Moldova. The name "Moldova" itself is derived from the Principality of Moldavia.

However, in the early 16th century, the region was invaded and ruled for a long time by the Ottoman Turkish Empire, the predecessor of modern Turkey. Moving into the 18th century, as the Ottoman Empire weakened, the territory of the former Principality of Moldavia was divided between the Austrian Empire and the Russian Empire. The area that is now Moldova came under Russian control.

In modern times, Moldova declared independence from Russia in 1917 during World War I and successfully united with the Kingdom of Romania. However, in 1944, during World War II, it was again occupied by the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, discussions about unification with Romania resumed, but both countries were unable to unify due to severe economic difficulties, leading Moldova to remain independent.

Unlike Romania, Moldova had a significant Russian population due to long-term Russian rule. These Russians established a pro-Russian separatist regime in the eastern border area, breaking away from the Moldovan government. This area is known as Transnistria. Approximately 1,500 Russian troops are stationed there, claiming to protect Transnistria's independence from Moldova.

Moldova's Standing Army is About 7,500... Difficult to Mobilize Reserves

In November last year, Moldovan soldiers are taking a commemorative photo in front of an armored vehicle provided by Germany. Moldova is known as the poorest country in Europe, with almost no armored forces and a standing army of only about 7,500 troops.

The Transnistria conflict, born from Moldova's complex history, is also a concern for Europe. The Russian military presence there is formidable, and as Russia pushes Ukraine back in the war, there is a possibility that it could extend its occupation to Moldova's border areas.

Facing a precarious situation, Moldova is receiving military support preparations from various European countries, but it is expected to be difficult. Before the war, Ukraine had a population exceeding 40 million and a standing army of 200,000, but Moldova has less than one-tenth of Ukraine's military strength.

According to the World Bank (WB) data from 2021, Moldova's population is about 2.61 million, which is even less than South Korea's reserve forces. Its standing army numbers only about 7,500. Due to financial difficulties, all old Soviet tanks have been decommissioned, and the military only possesses several dozen armored vehicles and artillery pieces. Additionally, as one of Europe's poorest countries, Moldova is suffering severe economic hardship and lacks the capacity to sustain a prolonged war.

If Russia does escalate the conflict, there are concerns about how many days Moldova could hold out. Moreover, if Moldova falls to Russia, Romania?a country closely related to Moldova?might intervene, raising fears of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Whether Moldova can successfully defend its sovereignty will significantly impact the security environment in Europe.