[Military Story] Conscription or Volunteer System: Military Manpower Shortages by Country

US Army to Cut 24,000 Troops in 5 Years
Trend of Volunteer Military Countries Switching to Conscription System

The U.S. Army has decided to reduce its personnel by 24,000 within five years, which accounts for about 5% of its total force. Instead of maintaining the current troop levels, the plan is to increase cyber warfare and long-range precision strike units to restructure the force for future warfare. In the U.S. Army’s “Army Force Structure Transformation” white paper, it was revealed that the Army plans to reduce its authorized strength from the current 494,000 to 470,000 by the 2029 fiscal year.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The situation is similar for our military. As of 2018, among the 600,000 active-duty troops, 65% (391,000) were active soldiers. However, from 2032 onward, this number will drop below 180,000. To prepare for this, unmanned systems and weapons integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) will be deployed, but given the mountainous terrain characteristics of the Korean Peninsula, the troop numbers are severely insufficient. The military authorities are under urgent pressure. They are reviewing plans to predict the scale of military personnel supply and demand around 2040 and to secure military service resources stably. This research is expected to include various alternatives such as conscription, volunteer enlistment, expansion of female soldiers, and abolition of alternative service.

Within and outside the military, the idea of a “female conscription system” is cautiously mentioned. This proposal has already been presented as populism in election seasons by political circles. Park Yong-jin, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, argued for the abolition of conscription in his book during his 2021 presidential campaign. Instead, he advocated maintaining an elite force of 150,000 to 200,000 through volunteer enlistment and training both men and women as reservists with 40 to 100 days of basic military training. The military internally holds a negative view, stating that basic military training alone is insufficient to treat them as military forces. There are also concerns about the adverse effect of exacerbating gender conflicts.

Proposals Include Extending Military Service and Supplementing with Civilian Personnel

Proposals to extend military service are also being suggested. Currently, the service periods are △ Army and Marine Corps 18 months △ Navy 20 months △ Air Force 21 months, but there is a suggestion to apply flexible service periods such as 21 or 24 months. However, this is realistically difficult. While shortening service periods is easy, extending them again requires national consensus.

Another option is supplementing with civilian personnel. The U.S. military secures about half the size of its active-duty force through civilians, including government employees, military civilian employees, and outsourcing to private companies. Particularly, private military companies (PMCs) can be utilized in frontline areas.

The most controversial alternative is changing from conscription to a volunteer enlistment system. This was also first ignited by political circles. In the 2022 presidential election, then-candidate Yoon Seok-youl announced plans to introduce a mixed conscription system combining conscription and volunteer enlistment to prepare for the decrease in military resources. Candidate Lee Jae-myung also proposed a selective volunteer enlistment system. Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party also pledged “modified” forms of volunteer enlistment. The problem is the budget. Last year, Sim Seong-eun, a legislative researcher at the National Assembly Research Service, pointed out in the report “Comparative Analysis of Countries Introducing Volunteer Enlistment and Reintroducing Conscription” that while volunteer enlistment can efficiently manage human resources, enhance professionalism, and reduce the national burden of military service, budget issues remain an obstacle.

More Countries Returning to Conscription Due to the Ukraine War

Rather, countries that have introduced volunteer enlistment are considering conscription again. This is because if the number of applicants decreases, the very foundation of security can be shaken. The representative country is the United States. The U.S. Department of Defense revealed in 2021 that it failed to recruit as many as 25%, or 15,000, of the new recruits planned. The U.S. military’s new recruit performance has been declining since 1987, recruiting 39% fewer troops compared to the period before then.

Europe is no different. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of the Cold War, Western European countries began transitioning to volunteer enlistment. Belgium was the first EU member state to abolish conscription in 1995. France switched to volunteer enlistment in 2001, and Germany in 2011.

However, the Ukraine war has reignited discussions about reintroducing conscription. Ukraine, which could only recruit 70% of its required troops and faced military weakening, decided to switch to volunteer enlistment in October 2013 but reintroduced conscription immediately after the Russian invasion in 2014. Lithuania, which introduced volunteer enlistment in 2008, reintroduced conscription in 2015, and Georgia, which fought a war with Russia, introduced conscription in 2017, just seven months after switching to volunteer enlistment. Sweden aimed to recruit 5,300 annually through volunteer enlistment in 2010 but only had 2,400 actual applicants. After struggling with troop shortages, Sweden eventually returned to conscription in 2018.