[General Election Compass] ARS Advantage Disappears... Crisis for Minjoo Party

Democratic Party Support Rate Shifts Rapidly in ARS Polls
Analysis of Nomination Turmoil and Emergence of Jo Guk's New Party Impact

With 50 days remaining until the general election, the support rate for the Democratic Party of Korea is fluctuating. Amid nomination controversies and other issues, the Democratic Party's support rate, which had shown a relative advantage over the People Power Party in automatic response system (ARS) polls, has declined, resulting in a close race. The emergence of the so-called Cho Kuk new party and nomination controversies have led to speculation that the support base has eroded and shifted to a wait-and-see stance.

According to a poll released on the 20th by Media Tomato (commissioned by News Tomato, conducted via wireless ARS from February 17 to 18 with 1,007 adults nationwide aged 18 and over), when asked which party's candidate they would vote for if the election were held tomorrow, 43.2% responded that they support the People Power Party, while 41.7% supported the Democratic Party.

Regarding proportional representation candidates from satellite parties announced by both sides, 40.3% said they would vote for the People Power Party's satellite party 'Gukminui Mirae,' while 29.6% supported the Democratic Party's provisional proportional party 'Biryeyeonhapjeongdang.' This confirmed the People Power Party's support beyond the margin of error. The so-called 'Cho Kuk new party,' founded by former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, received support from 9.4% of respondents.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The situation is not much different in other polls. In Realmeter's regular poll (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted February 15-16 with 1,009 adults nationwide aged 18 and over via 97% wireless and 3% wired ARS), the Democratic Party received 40.2% support, while the People Power Party received 39.1%. Although the Reform New Party was newly included in this poll, the gap between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party narrowed to 0.9 percentage points since the regular poll in the second week of February. Earlier this year, the gap between the two parties' support rates exceeded the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points), but in February, the Democratic Party's support rate declined, changing the dynamics.

Until now, the Democratic Party had confidence that even if it lagged in telephone interview polls such as Gallup's regular polls or NBS (National Barometer Survey), it would maintain an advantage in ARS polls. However, it has recently been trailing in various surveys. Moreover, in the recent Gallup poll (conducted February 13-15 with 1,002 adults nationwide aged 18 and over via random wireless phone number sampling and interviewer telephone survey), the People Power Party received 37% support, while the Democratic Party received 31%. Although this was just within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points), considering the previously fluctuating support trends, public opinion appears to be highly volatile.

Nomination Controversies, Emergence of Cho Kuk New Party, and Other Negative Factors Possibly at Play

Experts believe that recent nomination controversies, the emergence of the Cho Kuk new party, and the Reform New Party have acted as variables. While the People Power Party has had relatively fewer nomination controversies, the Democratic Party has faced ongoing issues such as the departure of Kim Young-joo, the National Assembly Deputy Speaker who ranked in the bottom 20%, and Park Yong-jin's request for a re-examination. Additionally, within the party, there has been growing backlash against 'purging' due to polls conducted by unknown commissioning bodies.

Kim Bong-shin, director at Metavoice, said, "With the emergence of the Cho Kuk new party, the Democratic Party's support base appears confused and has shifted to a wait-and-see stance. Some supporters seem to have moved to support the Cho Kuk new party, while moderates have left due to defections." He added, "The People Power Party seems to be benefiting from expectations toward Han Dong-hoon, the emergency committee chairman, which are transferring to the party."

Choi Byung-chun, director at the New Growth Research Institute, pointed out, "The current decline in the Democratic Party's support rate is seen by moderates as self-serving nomination practices." He criticized, "Controversies over fairness affecting Lee Jae-myung himself and affiliated lawmakers, as well as intensified conflicts between the pro-Lee Jae-myung and pro-Moon Jae-in factions, have shaken the voter coalition within the Democratic Party." Choi, who identified the pro-Lee and pro-Moon factions as the two main pillars of Democratic Party support, warned, "There is a possibility of support base erosion within the Democratic Party amid nomination controversies, and internal conflicts may escalate."

He added, "The Democratic Party currently has three options: losing big, losing small, or winning. Losing big means continuing as is; losing small means stopping the displeasure of the 'Jjinmyeong' faction (close aides from Lee Jae-myung's past as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province); and winning would involve Lee Jae-myung either not running or running in a difficult district."