North Korea's "South Korea is the main enemy" rule sparks various interpretations
U.S. CNN broadcasts report citing experts
Major foreign media outlets reported on the 15th (local time) that North Korea's designation of South Korea not as a unification target but as a 'main enemy' has led to various interpretations.
According to the US CNN network, on the same day, Dr. Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University and researcher Robert Carlin of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies wrote in a recent article for the US North Korea-focused media 38 North that "It is unknown when and how North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un might pull the trigger on (war)."
However, CNN reported that other experts do not agree with this analysis. The reason is that Kim is well aware that large-scale military actions against South Korea and the US would be disadvantageous to the North Korean regime.
Some experts diagnosed that Kim Jong-un's characterization of inter-Korean relations as 'hostile relations between two states' is a measure necessary for regime preservation rather than war.
Lim Eul-chul, director of the North Korea Research Center at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, stated in an interview with CNN, "(North Korea) is particularly wary of being absorbed by South Korea and believes that it is impossible to establish normal relations with South Korea without developing the North Korean economy."
Many US government officials who spoke to CNN also said they have not detected any indication that Kim Jong-un is likely to attack South Korea or provoke with nuclear weapons.
An anonymous senior US Department of Defense official said, "(Kim Jong-un's) top priority is regime survival," adding, "This has never changed and has been the strategic priority of the Kim family since the Korean War."
Nevertheless, CNN interpreted North Korea's raising of provocation levels, such as unveiling new strategic weapons including a new cruise missile potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, as possibly being set against the backdrop of strengthened security cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan, and the shaking of the US-led international order.
There is also analysis that the upcoming US presidential election may have had an influence. CNN said, "Kim Jong-un is likely watching (President Joe Biden's re-election bid) closely," and "He may want to see a replacement by former President Donald Trump." This is because if Trump is re-elected, the security cooperation system among South Korea, the US, and Japan, formed under President Biden's leadership, could be undermined.
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