"The decades-old U.S. policy will be completely overturned." As former President Donald Trump, a leading Republican presidential candidate, continues to pressure NATO allies for increased defense spending, concerns among allies about the so-called 'Trump 2.0' era are growing. Reports have emerged that if Trump returns to power, he may reduce NATO's collective defense commitments as recently threatened and also push for a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia.
Bloomberg News reported on the 14th (local time), citing sources familiar with the matter, that Trump and his close aides are discussing such plans. First, Trump's team intends to apply Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which covers collective defense, only to countries that meet defense spending targets. This is an extension of Trump's earlier statement during a campaign rally in South Carolina, where he said he would not protect NATO members who do not pay their defense costs and would instead encourage Russia to do as it wishes. Having repeatedly criticized NATO's security freeloading during his previous term, he is now considering withdrawing the security umbrella altogether if re-elected.
Additionally, Trump's team is discussing the possibility of bringing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table early in his administration if he wins the election. One aide mentioned that halting U.S. military aid could help bring Ukraine to the negotiation table. Advisors including Larry Kudlow and Robert O'Brien have also pushed for stronger sanctions targeting the Russian central bank to pressure President Putin. However, Trump's team has not yet contacted officials from Russia or Ukraine, reportedly mindful of the U.S. Logan Act, which prohibits private citizens from negotiating on behalf of the government, according to the report.
If these discussions materialize, the decades-long U.S. foreign and security policy will inevitably be shaken. Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said, "Former President Trump does not negotiate with other countries or formulate foreign policy," adding, "Other countries are moving in preparation for the possibility of Trump being elected."
The report assessed, "Trump's return will have immediate repercussions starting in Europe," and "a shift in the U.S. stance on Ukraine could be seen as a signal regarding Taiwan." This factor further heightens the sense of crisis among Asian allies, including South Korea. China has long argued that Taiwan could become a discarded chess piece during Trump's administration. Previously, Trump avoided answering questions about whether he would defend Taiwan if China took military action.
Amid the stir caused by Trump's remarks, NATO countered on the same day that the number of countries meeting the '2% of GDP defense spending' target this year will increase to 18, six times more than in 2014. NATO held a defense ministers' meeting that day to discuss not only defense spending but also support for Ukraine, which marks its second year of war on the 24th.
The Biden administration also came out in defense of NATO. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, "NATO is an alliance that provides enormous benefits and stability to the United States," adding, "That is why we have witnessed strong, enduring, and broad support for NATO not only in Congress but also among the American people." White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized during a briefing that "since President Biden took office, the number of countries meeting the 2% defense spending target has doubled from 9 to 18 in three years," and "the NATO alliance has become bigger, stronger, and more important than at any time in its 75-year history."
Meanwhile, Russian President Putin stated that current President Biden is more favorable to Russia than former President Trump as the next U.S. president. In an interview with Russian state media, when asked who is better for Russia between the two, he answered, "Biden," describing him as "more experienced, more predictable, and an old-fashioned politician."
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