Only 'Maplezi' Succeeds... Subscription Cold Wave Continues

Maple Jai Records Average Competition Rate of 442 to 1
First-Choice Subscription Competition Rate Raises Average... Up Compared to Previous Year

Experts Say "Optical Illusion Effect Caused by Maple Jai"
Many Complexes Nationwide Show Undersubscription and Zero Applications

Last month, apartment subscription competition rates showed a temporary increase compared to previous years, indicating a brief surge of warmth in the market. However, this was mainly due to tens of thousands of applicants flocking to the ‘Maple Ja-i’ subscription in Jamwon-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul, which significantly raised the competition rates in the Seoul and metropolitan area subscription markets. Analysts suggest that the overall subscription market cold spell has yet to dissipate. The number of undersubscribed complexes is increasing even in the metropolitan area, and in non-metropolitan areas, some complexes have seen zero applicants.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Maple Ja-i Subscription 'Optical Illusion Effect'

According to the Korea Real Estate Agency’s Subscription Home on the 14th, the first-priority subscription for Maple Ja-i held on the 6th attracted 35,828 applicants for 81 units, resulting in an average competition rate of 442 to 1. For the 59A type, which had only one unit available, the competition rate soared to 3,574 to 1. Maple Ja-i is supplied at a price lower than surrounding complexes due to the application of the price ceiling system and is located in a prime area adjacent to Jamwon Station on Subway Line 3 in Gangnam, earning it the nickname ‘lottery subscription.’

Maple Ja-i’s outstanding performance also raised the average subscription competition rate. According to the real estate platform Zigbang, as of the previous day, the nationwide apartment first-priority subscription competition rate last month was 195.1 to 1, a sharp increase compared to the same period last year (0.3 to 1). The first-priority subscription competition rate in Seoul was 8.4 to 1. Ham Young-jin, head of Zigbang Big Data Lab, explained, "Considering the poor subscription market conditions and that January is a low season seasonally, last month’s subscription competition rate was unusually high, largely due to the influence of Maple Ja-i."

On the other hand, excluding Maple Ja-i, the nationwide apartment first-priority subscription competition rate as of the 6th was only 3.5 to 1. Seoul’s rate also dropped to 6.1 to 1. This means there were no other subscription-hit complexes besides Maple Ja-i. Maple Ja-i was included in last month’s subscription complexes based on the recruitment announcement date (January 26, 2024).

Experts analyze that the rise in subscription competition rates last month was an ‘optical illusion effect’ caused by a few popular complexes. Although it appears improved compared to a year ago, it is still difficult to say that the subscription market has entered a recovery phase. Seo Jin-hyung, a professor at Gyeongin Women’s University, explained, "When many apartments with potential for price increases are supplied, the first-priority subscription competition rate tends to be high. Last month’s rise was a kind of optical illusion effect due to the inclusion of complexes like Maple Ja-i, which have good location conditions and prices lower than surrounding apartments."

Undersubscription in Metropolitan Area... Zero Applicants in Non-Metropolitan Areas

Outside Seoul, undersubscribed complexes flooded the country. The metropolitan area was no exception. In Gwangmyeong-si, Gyeonggi Province, ‘Gwangmyeong Ja-i Hillstate SK VIEW’ saw undersubscription with only 64 applicants for 101 units of the 34A type. ‘Seogwanggyo Hanla Vivaldi Lake Foret’ in Suwon-si, Gyeonggi Province, recruited 41 units of the 84B type but only 33 applicants applied. ‘Anseong Haustory First City’ in Anseong-si, Gyeonggi Province, had only 8 applicants for 468 units across 4 types, showing poor results.

The situation is more severe in non-metropolitan areas. In Nam-gu, Ulsan, ‘Munsu-ro Artis’ had 62 applicants for 136 units of the 84B type. ‘Jecheon Sinbaek Seongwang Rosewell Apartment (209 units)’ in Jecheon-si, Chungbuk, and ‘Bohae Sun City River Park (208 units)’ in Sasang-gu, Busan, had only 1 and 8 applicants respectively. Some complexes even had zero applicants. These include ‘Hupo Raon Heights (60 units)’ in Uljin-gun, Gyeongbuk, and ‘Hongseong 2nd Seungwon Pellice Signature (292 units)’ in Hongseong-gun, Chungnam.

Kim In-man, director of Kim In-man Real Estate Economic Research Institute, said, "Although the situation has improved compared to January last year, which was the lowest point, it is still too early to say that the subscription market has entered a recovery phase."