Share Soars to 40%... Coal-Fired Power Expected to Drop to 37% and Be Surpassed
China is accelerating the development of renewable energy for carbon neutrality. This year is expected to be the inaugural year when wind and solar power generation capacity surpasses coal power.
On the 1st, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing the China Electricity Council (CEC), that China's wind and solar power generation capacity will exceed 1300 gigawatts (GW) this year. Solar and wind power are expected to reach 780GW and 530GW respectively. In this case, their share of the total power generation capacity will rise to 40%, up 4 percentage points from 36% at the end of last year. Meanwhile, the share of coal-fired power generation capacity is expected to decrease from 39.9% last year to 37% by the end of this year.
Ijinhualuo area, a qi-level unit in the south-central part of Eerduosi, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. Solar panels cover the grassland to an extent that makes it difficult to gauge the end at a glance. (Photo by Kim Hyunjung)
If the wind and solar power generation capacity of 1300GW is actually achieved by the end of this year, it will exceed the original plan of 1200GW by 2030, achieving the target six years ahead of schedule. In 2020, President Xi Jinping announced plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 25% by 2030 and to expand the total wind and solar capacity to 1200GW during the same period.
According to the CEC, last year the total power generation capacity of non-fossil fuels, including renewable energy, nuclear power, and hydropower, exceeded 50% of the total capacity for the first time. By the end of this year, it is expected to reach 1860GW, accounting for 57% of the total. China aims to transition 80% of its total energy to non-fossil fuel sources by 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality.
Hao Yingjie, Secretary-General of the CEC, explained, "Considering investment, capacity growth rate, and structural changes, the power industry is continuously advancing the trend of green and low-carbon transition." However, SCMP pointed out that "China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases causing global warming, with the power sector being the largest contributor." In fact, China still relies on coal power (about 60% as of 2023) for electricity consumption.
China's total electricity consumption this year is expected to reach 9.8 trillion kilowatt-hours (KWh), a 6% increase from the previous year. This is below the 6.7% growth rate seen in 2023 when China lifted its zero-COVID policy.
The CEC predicted, "Some regions may face difficulties due to intermittent renewable energy supply," and warned that "continuous increases in electricity consumption will intensify supply pressures." Regarding renewable energy facilities, it emphasized the need to "recover from natural disasters, ensure stable operation, and accelerate the development of a market-based pricing system."
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