Bloomberg·Morning Consult Survey
Biden's 'Immigration', Trump's 'Judicial Risk' Variables
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden by an average of 6 percentage points in virtual matchups in seven key swing states that will decide the outcome of the U.S. presidential election this November.
On the 31st (local time), Bloomberg News reported that a Morning Consult poll conducted from the 16th to the 22nd (local time) surveyed 4,956 voters in seven swing states?Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?and found these results.
In a one-on-one virtual matchup between the two former and current presidents, former President Trump received 48% support, while President Biden received 42%, giving Trump a 6 percentage point lead. This margin exceeds the margin of error (±1 percentage point for all 7 states combined, ±3-5 percentage points for individual states). In a multi-candidate virtual matchup including third-party candidates, former President Trump’s lead widened to 9 percentage points.
The seven swing states surveyed are considered decisive in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Trump and Biden each won six out of these seven swing states in the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively, securing their entries into the White House.
Swing state voters particularly expressed distrust in President Biden regarding the issue of illegal immigration. Sixty-one percent of respondents pointed to Biden as responsible for the surge in illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. Thirty-eight percent blamed the Republican Party, and 30% held former President Trump responsible.
Thirteen percent of respondents identified immigration as the most urgent issue determining their vote, up from 10% in the previous survey. Meanwhile, those who said the economy was the most important factor dropped to 36% from 40% in the prior survey.
As immigration emerged as the biggest issue in the U.S. presidential election, a pressured President Biden requested Congress on the 26th to strengthen the president’s authority to close the border. However, former President Trump reportedly pressured the Republican majority in the House not to compromise with the Biden administration and the Democratic Party on border issues.
Caroline Bai, Vice President of Morning Consult, stated, "As the economy improves and becomes less important to voters, there is room to focus on other issues," adding, "This result clearly shows that immigration will be an important issue." She further analyzed, "Immigration will be a key issue in this election, and so far, the Republican Party has succeeded in criticizing President Biden."
Although former President Trump leads President Biden in approval ratings, the 'judicial risk' is expected to be a significant variable. Trump has been criminally indicted four times on 91 charges, including attempts to overturn the election results.
Fifty-three percent of swing state voters said they would not vote for former President Trump if he is convicted. Twenty-three percent of Republican supporters also said they would not vote for Trump.
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