[General Election Compass] Opinion Polls Exposed to the Risk of 'Yeoreonjohak' Manipulation

Mass Text Messages to Supporters Whenever There Is a Nomination-Related Poll
Similar Polls During Polling Periods Also Raise Suspicions

As the proportion of public opinion polls in party nominations increases, the risk of manipulation is also growing. It has become natural to mobilize supporters in preparation for these polls. In addition, there are suspicions that some polls are being conducted to influence nomination-related surveys, creating a 'turbulent' environment surrounding the nomination polls.

According to political circles on the 30th, the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea, both advocating a system nomination, are either currently conducting or have completed nomination-related opinion polls. The People Power Party commissioned 12 polling companies to conduct telephone interviews, while the Democratic Party commissioned 6 polling companies to conduct polls using an automated response system (ARS).

The People Power Party conducted a cutoff opinion poll last week. The results are reflected 40% in the incumbent replacement index. In addition, the party creates the replacement index through party audits (30%), contribution (20%), and interviews (10%). Candidates ranking in the bottom 10% in this evaluation are completely excluded from nomination. Furthermore, those in the bottom 10% to 30% will have a 20% deduction applied. Seven incumbents are entirely excluded from nomination, and 18 will receive point deductions. When the main primary begins, opinion polls will again be conducted, influencing about 50-80% of the outcome.

The Democratic Party also conducted a nomination suitability survey, with opinion polls accounting for 40%. The poll results serve as a basis for assessing the competitiveness of preliminary candidates, alongside identity (15%), contribution (10%), legislative activity ability (10%), morality (15%), and interviews (10%). Whether a candidate proceeds to the primary is determined based on these results. The Democratic Party also reflects opinion polls by 50% in subsequent primaries to decide candidates.

Jeong Young-hwan, Chairman of the People Power Party's Nomination Management Committee, is touching his glasses at the first Nomination Management Committee meeting held at the central party office in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 16th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The problem is that the method of opinion polling to gauge public sentiment is vulnerable to manipulation. When news spreads within the party that party-level opinion polls have started or supporters report receiving calls, candidates ask their supporters to answer calls starting with '02-XXX-XXXX' or to accept calls from '02 or 070' numbers, sending text messages to this effect. Some candidates even instruct supporters on how to answer questions or to not hang up until the call is completed. The key factors are how quickly the start of the poll is identified and how many supporters can be mobilized.

In political circles, it is generally said that because response rates to opinion polls are low, actively responding mobilized supporters tend to disproportionately represent actual public opinion. Of course, there are counterarguments. Compared to the total population, the number of supporters individual candidates can mobilize is limited, so the impact is minimal.

Kim Bong-shin, Director of Metavoice, said, "In suitability surveys, organizational strength can have an impact," adding, "In rural areas, people often hang up when receiving calls from numbers starting with 02, but if contacted in this way, the likelihood of answering increases." Kim also noted, "Especially in ARS opinion polls, which have low response rates, the impact can be significant." Kim Chun-seok, Executive Director of Korea Research, said, "In general opinion polls, considering the total number of voters, the impact may not be large, but in party primaries, the participation rate in surveys can be increased."

Recently, beyond these guidance texts, opinion polls themselves have become a source of controversy. There are suspicions that opinion polls are being conducted for manipulation purposes around the same time as internal suitability surveys.

Recently, a campaign office of the People Power Party sparked debate over opinion polls conducted using local area codes. Since these polls include questions about the suitability of incumbents, there is no way to know whether the polls are conducted by the party's nomination committee or by competing candidates. Despite extensive efforts to identify the poll requester, the source remains unknown.

Im Hyuk-baek, Chair of the Nomination Management Committee of the Democratic Party of Korea, is presiding over the 1st Central Party Public Office Candidate Recommendation Management Committee meeting held at the National Assembly on the 12th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Of course, such calls might be a method for one candidate to gauge regional public opinion as a 'simulation.' However, competing candidates can only suspect that these calls aim to influence internal surveys. For example, they might cause supporters of competing candidates who were waiting to respond to calls to mistakenly believe they have already responded to the party's poll, leading to complacency. Conversely, there are suspicions that the frequency of exposure to incumbents might be intentionally increased.

According to the Public Official Election Act and related laws, when conducting opinion polls, the poll must be reported to the relevant Election Poll Deliberation Commission two days before the start of the poll. However, parties, party-affiliated policy research institutes, and media are exempt from prior reporting obligations. Candidates conducting polls only need to report in writing, but since prior poll reports are not publicly disclosed, the general public cannot know who is conducting the poll or for what purpose.

Given this situation, respondents cannot know the intent behind incoming calls. A representative of a polling company said, "For political issue-related opinion polls, there is no need to disclose the purpose of the survey or the client information," adding, "In fact, disclosing this information could cause problems." From the perspective of those receiving calls, it is impossible to know what kind of call it is. Even if some form of opinion manipulation occurs through these polls, voters remain defenseless.