Last Year's Death Toll Matches Sweden's Entire Population... China's Population 'Backslides'

Mortality Rate Hits Highest Since the Cultural Revolution

China is facing the pressure of rapid population decline and aging. Last year, the mortality rate was recorded at 7.87 per 1,000 people, marking the highest level since the Cultural Revolution.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 17th, China's population stood at 1.497 billion, a decrease of 2.08 million compared to the previous year. By gender, the male population was about 720.32 million, and the female population was about 689.35 million.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), Chinese economist and international financial analyst Hong Hao described last year's population decline in China as a "worrisome trend" on his social networking service (SNS). Lee Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus and a demographer, explained that "the scale of China's population decline last year is equivalent to the population of New Mexico in the United States."

At the same time, the birth rate sharply decreased. Last year, the number of newborns in China was 9.02 million, which is a 5.6% decrease compared to the previous year (9.56 million). The birth rate was 6.39 per 1,000 people, significantly down from 6.77 the previous year, marking the lowest level since statistics began in 1949. Yue Su, the chief economist for China at The Economist Intelligence Unit, stated, "The continuous decline in newborns is a result of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic," adding that "it affects both birth and death rates."

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Last year's number of deaths exceeded the entire population of Sweden (10.67 million). In China, 11 million people died last year, an increase of 690,000 from the previous year, with a national mortality rate of 7.87 per 1,000 people. According to SCMP, this is the highest rate since 1966 (8.06 per 1,000) during the Cultural Revolution.

The working-age population is gradually decreasing. Last year, the labor-age population aged 16 to 59 was 864.81 million, accounting for 61.3% of the total population. This is a decline from the previous year (875.56 million, 62.0%). The population aged 60 and above was 296.97 million, making up 21.1% of the total population, and those aged 65 and above reached 216.76 million, accounting for 15.4%.

The urbanization rate is steadily rising. Last year, the number of permanent residents in urban areas in China was 932.67 million, an increase of 11.96 million compared to the previous year. The number of permanent residents in rural areas was 477 million, a decrease of 14.04 million annually. The urbanization rate, which is the proportion of the urban population in the total population, rose by 0.96 percentage points to 66.16% compared to the previous year.

It is expected that the birth rate will somewhat recover this year, but it is anticipated to be temporary. Chief economist Yue said, "The suppressed birth rate will temporarily rebound this year and next year," but predicted, "due to the decline in the childbearing-age population and the trend of decreasing birth rates, the number of newborns will return to the previous trend."

He added, "China is not facing a 'birth rate crisis' similar to South Korea, but it will be difficult to maintain a low but stable birth rate like Japan," and forecasted, "Without policy responses such as household-centered fiscal transfers, improved working conditions for female workers, and enhanced social welfare guarantees for migrant workers, it will be difficult to recover the birth rate." He also noted, "Youth unemployment also affects marriage and childbirth."