Cracks in Taiwan's Two-Party System Shaped by MZ Voters... The Key to Korea's 'Third Zone' Success?[Political Talk]

Taiwan's Decades-Long Dominance by Two Major Parties
‘Third Party’ Makes Significant Gains with 20% of MZ Votes

Sharp Conflicts Between Progressive and Conservative Major Parties in Korea
Attracting MZ and Expanding the Centrist Base Are Key

Former leader Lee Nak-yeon, who left the Democratic Party of Korea, is smiling together with Lee Jun-seok, chairman of the Reform Party's Policy Committee, at the launch ceremony of the New Future held at Seoul Women's Plaza in Dongjak-gu, Seoul on the afternoon of the 16th (Photo by Yonhap News).

In the Taiwanese Legislative Yuan election, the two major parties, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang, failed to secure a majority of seats, while the third party, the Taiwan People's Party, won 8 seats and became the casting voter. In the Korean parliament, the two-party system is clear. The Democratic Party holds 164 seats, enabling it to pass all legislative votes, opposing the main opposition party, the People Power Party.

In the Taiwanese presidential election held on the 13th, Kuomintang candidate Ke Wenzhe of the "third party" Taiwan People's Party made significant progress with a vote share of 26.46%, causing a crack in the decades-long dominance of the two major parties. The election results in Taiwan are widely interpreted as a manifestation of dissatisfaction with the dysfunction and inefficiency of the two-party system, resulting in a "third-party electoral revolution." This has significant implications for South Korea, where the political landscape is similarly dominated by two major parties. With a "third-party" wave also blowing through South Korean politics, attention is focused on the impact of Taiwan's election results on the South Korean general election just three months away.

People's Party Secures 8 Seats... Result of MZ Generation's 'Two-Party Aversion'

In the Taiwanese presidential election, People's Party candidate Ke Wenzhe achieved a surprisingly high vote share of 26.46%. This is the first time since the presidential election switched to a direct vote system in 1996 that a third party has secured more than 20% of the vote. The third party also held the casting vote in the legislature. Out of a total of 113 seats, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (51 seats) and the Kuomintang (52 seats) were nearly tied, while the People's Party secured 8 seats.

Although he lost, Ke Wenzhe's 26% vote share was considered a surprise. Taiwanese media interpret Ke's strong performance as a result of voters' disgust with the two-party system, especially the support from younger generations. He focused on livelihood issues such as low wages, rising housing prices, and childcare burdens, earning overwhelming support from the MZ generation. Among the three candidates, his campaign attracted the largest number of supporters aged 20 to 30.

Taiwan election campaign scene (Source=Yonhap News)

Similar Long-Standing Progressive-Conservative Conflict as in South Korea... Securing the Centrist Vote Crucial in April General Election

Experts diagnose that the party systems in South Korea and Taiwan are similar, carrying significant implications. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "The progressive-conservative conflict in Taiwanese politics is a long-standing issue, and the dividing factor has always been whether one is pro-China or not. The younger generation sought a third alternative, and this tendency manifested in this election."

He added, "There are structural similarities in the overall social and generational composition between South Korea and Taiwan, which could have some influence on the South Korean general election." In fact, Taiwanese voters are sharply divided between those who prefer the Democratic Progressive Party (progressive) and the Kuomintang (conservative) based on their stance toward China. The fact that the two major parties have alternated power in a "handover" style depending on the ruling party's performance also resembles South Korea.

In South Korea, for the third party to successfully penetrate between the two major parties, it is interpreted that the key variable is how strongly the Reform New Party, led by former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok, can serve as a focal point and attract the swing voters and centrist MZ generation. Park Sung-min, head of political consulting Min, said, "While the Democratic Progressive Party and Kuomintang mainly clashed over 'relations with China and the U.S.,' the third party, the People's Party, thoroughly focused on gaining support from the MZ generation," adding, "If we pay attention to issues beyond diplomacy, security, or ideology, there are lessons for the Reform New Party." Park especially noted, "The people who will decide the outcome of the election are those in their 20s and 30s," and said, "Former leader Lee Jun-seok has points that can appeal to the MZ generation swing voters."

(Data=Captured from the Facebook of Lee Jun-seok, Chairman of the Reform New Party's Policy Committee)

On the other hand, Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, "It is not appropriate to simply compare the situation in Taiwan with that of our country," explaining, "The two-party system is inevitable under a presidential system, and voters tend to concentrate on leading presidential candidates due to the psychology of avoiding 'wasted votes.'" He added, "For the 'third party' to succeed, it is important whether a chemical-level union is well formed. Even if there is no merger, it is crucial whether they speak with one voice."