IMF Also Predicts 40% Job Impact from AI
45% Express Concern Over Survival for 10 Years Due to AI and Climate Change
Global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) conducted a survey of chief executive officers (CEOs) and found that the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reduce jobs.
According to reports from Bloomberg and the Associated Press on the 15th (local time), one in four global CEOs expects that the introduction of generative AI, such as ChatGPT, will reduce jobs by at least 5% this year. The survey was conducted with 4,702 CEOs from 105 countries worldwide.
In particular, industries such as media, entertainment, banking, insurance, and logistics showed a high possibility of job reductions due to AI. On the other hand, fields such as engineering, construction, technology, mining, and healthcare showed a low likelihood of jobs being replaced by AI, as the potential for cost savings through automation is low.
The day before, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also presented a similar outlook. IMF research predicts that AI will affect about 40% of jobs worldwide. According to the IMF, about half of these will be negatively impacted. Especially in advanced countries, about 60% of jobs are expected to be affected, which is higher than in emerging markets (40%) and low-income countries (26%). Georgieva stated, "In most scenarios, AI is likely to worsen inequality. Policymakers must actively address these issues to prevent technology from triggering social tensions."
In the PwC survey, about half of the global CEOs expressed concerns about long-term survival due to generative AI and climate change. Approximately 45% responded that they do not believe their business will survive if there are no significant changes in the next 10 years. This is a significant increase compared to the 39% response rate in a similar survey conducted early last year. The advancement of generative AI was the top concern for most respondents, and three out of four expected the business environment to change significantly within the next three years.
Regarding the innovation that generative AI will bring to industries, both positive and skeptical views coexisted. Among respondents, 46% expected that the use of generative AI would increase profitability over the next 12 months. Conversely, 47% said that generative AI would bring little or no change.
Over the past year, about 32% of CEOs reported that they have introduced generative AI across their entire company. Fifty-eight percent expect that the adoption of generative AI will improve the quality of products or services within the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, 38% of respondents presented an optimistic economic outlook. This is a 20 percentage point increase compared to the 18% who were optimistic last year. The forecast for economic downturn dropped sharply from 73% last year to 45% this year.
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