"Will Donald Trump return?" The possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House has become a hot topic even in Davos, Switzerland, thousands of miles away from Washington D.C.
Major foreign media outlets, including Bloomberg News, reported on the 15th (local time) that among attendees at the World Economic Forum (WEF, Davos Forum) annual meeting in Davos, discussions about the possibility of former President Trump's return are circulating. The opening day of the Davos Forum coincides with the Republican Party's first primary, the 'Iowa Caucus,' which is considered the starting point of the U.S. presidential race. Whether former President Trump will secure an overwhelming first place is a key point of interest.
Meanwhile, conversations among political, business, and academic leaders attending the forum suggest that if former President Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it could introduce new uncertainties and risks to the global order. The news agency conveyed the atmosphere, stating, "Although 2020 was the last time former President Trump attended the Davos Forum, he remains the most popular topic of conversation among businesspeople, financiers, and policymakers today."
Philip Hildebrant, Vice Chairman of BlackRock, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Davos, "We have already gone through the Trump administration and survived. So we will see what it means (if former President Trump returns to the White House)." He assessed, "Certainly, from a European and globalist perspective, it is a major concern." Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) and a regular at the Davos Forum, also recently stated in an interview that "(a Trump victory in the election) is clearly a threat," referring to the Trump administration's past responses to trade tariffs, NATO, and climate change.
Politico reported, "Global leaders gathered in Davos are concerned that former President Trump would become even more anti-globalist if he returns to the presidency," adding, "The specter of populist agitator Trump’s return is roaming the forum halls and appearing in private conversations."
A close aide to former President Trump, speaking anonymously to Politico, evaluated, "Davos's judgment that a second Trump administration would disrupt their work is correct." This suggests that some of the concerns raised in Davos could materialize. If former President Trump wins this year's U.S. presidential election, foreign policies regarding support for the Ukraine war, NATO, and Israel are expected to change drastically, and a high-tariff trade war could be reignited. From an economic perspective, the policies of a second Trump administration are also expected to be more radical and divisive.
Maida Ruge from the European Council on Foreign Relations warned, "The impact of former President Trump's election goes beyond foreign policy and trade," adding, "He could turn the U.S. into a non-liberal democracy. This would redefine the relationship between the world and the United States."
The Iowa Caucus, the first hurdle in the U.S. Republican presidential primary, begins at 7 p.m. local time on the day, which is 10 a.m. on the 16th in Korean time. Whether former President Trump secures a majority support and the competition for second place between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are key points to watch. Meanwhile, an extreme cold wave dropping temperatures to around minus 40 degrees Celsius is considered a variable affecting voting. For former President Trump, failing to secure a majority in Iowa, a conservative state with a 90% white population, could raise doubts about his final chances of winning and potentially have negative repercussions.
Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore said, "I do not consider (Trump's victory) a foregone conclusion," adding, "I do not want to see him renominated and reelected as the Republican presidential candidate." Gore also mentioned that in the 2016 Iowa Caucus, Senator Ted Cruz, not former President Trump, won, and said, "I do not know if (the Iowa Caucus results) are as important as some people claim."
Meanwhile, a joint poll released last weekend by the Des Moines Register, NBC, and MediaCom showed former President Trump leading with 48% support, far ahead of former Ambassador Haley (20%) and Governor DeSantis (16%).
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