[War & Business] "Taiwan Nationalism" Rises to Power

Lai Ching-te, a Hardline Independence Advocate, Comes to Power
Denial of Historical Ties Between China and Taiwan
Concerns Over a Clash: Sinocentrism vs. Taiwan Nationalism

The highly anticipated Taiwanese presidential election, which had captured global attention, has come to an end. Lai Ching-te, the candidate from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), secured a higher-than-expected 40% of the vote and will succeed as the next president, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Taiwan. This is because, for the first time, a leader of 'Taiwan Nationalism,' which most strongly advocates for Taiwan's independence within Taiwanese politics, has come to power.

On the 13th, Lai Ching-te, who won the Taiwanese presidential election, waved his hand to greet supporters gathered immediately after the election results were announced. [Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

As a mainstream politician within the DPP, President-elect Lai Ching-te has consistently advocated for the separation and independence of Taiwan from China. During the DPP primary process, he repeatedly declared, "I will never let Taiwan become a second Hong Kong." At first glance, this may seem no different from President Tsai Ing-wen’s stance, who has long opposed the Chinese Communist Party’s theory of absorption and unification and advocated for the independence of the Republic of China, or from the previous Kuomintang (KMT) logic that claims China’s legitimacy lies with the Republic of China.

However, the concept of independence promoted by Lai Ching-te and the Taiwan Nationalists is far removed from independence as the Republic of China. Their claim to independence starts from the historical perspective that Taiwan is fundamentally a Pacific island nation distinct from China from the very beginning, and that Taiwan has no historical origins linked to China.

Until now, the so-called Chinese?including the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang?have regarded Taiwan as an integral part of China. Taiwan, once a Chinese island region, became divided after 1949 when the defeated Kuomintang relocated its base there following the Chinese Civil War, militarily confronting the People's Republic of China on the mainland. This is the history of Taiwan as understood by the Chinese.

However, the Taiwan Nationalists’ argument is completely different. They assert that no Chinese regime on the mainland has ever directly governed Taiwan, sent administrators, or led its development. After the fall of the Ming Dynasty in the 17th century, voluntary immigrants from various parts of China moved to Taiwan Island and independently established villages and survived without any assistance from successive Chinese regimes.

To them, Taiwan’s history is a shared history created by immigrants from China and the indigenous peoples of Taiwan. They claim that the Kuomintang arbitrarily entered Taiwan after losing the Chinese Civil War and colonized the island. This completely denies any historical origin of Taiwan linked to China.

The reason the Chinese Communist Party is on high alert over Lai Ching-te’s rise to power lies here. His historical perspective is utterly unacceptable to both the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people. The fact that the Chinese Communist Party was found to have publicly funded even the Kuomintang?its arch-enemy before and after this presidential election?demonstrates how seriously they view Lai’s ascendancy. The Taiwanese Kuomintang has never disputed the historical origins of Taiwan and China with the Communist Party.

For now, Lai Ching-te may not openly promote Taiwan Nationalism as a major policy, but over time, the Taiwan independence movement is expected to gain greater momentum. In the midst of the US-China hegemonic rivalry, Taiwan Nationalism could act as a detonator shaking not only cross-strait relations but the entire Northeast Asian geopolitical landscape. We urgently need to establish contingency plans to prepare for conflicts between Sinocentrism and Taiwan Nationalism.