[General Election Candidates]⑧ "Armed with Long Experience and Know-How"... Veteran Lawmakers Challenging for National Assembly Speaker

Ruling Party Faces Challenge of Replacing Veteran Yeongnam Lawmakers
Opposition May See Surge in 86 Generation Replacement Debate

Editor's NoteWith the New Year 2024, the political landscape for the 22nd general election has officially opened. Public sentiment remains shrouded in uncertainty. Unexpected variables have emerged, such as the assault on Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. The ruling and opposition parties are rapidly moving into the candidate nomination phase. Voters are observing the nomination process to judge whether renewal is taking place. They evaluate the 'direction' and 'figures' that parties aim for. Parties do not only innovate; sometimes they regress. Since the next four years involve electing representatives of the people, it is important to scrutinize them carefully. This series examines candidates by major fields and generations: ① Presidential Office ② Bureaucrats ③ Legal and Police ④ Military ⑤ Incumbent Face-offs ⑥ Old Boys (OB) ⑦ 2030 Generation ⑧ Senior Lawmakers

In the National Assembly, the more times a lawmaker is elected, the more seasoned (貫祿) they are considered. Even those who have been very active in society are just first-term lawmakers once they enter the Assembly. Senior lawmakers with many terms add 'wisdom' to the party's decision-making process. Sometimes, in situations of conflict between ruling and opposition parties, they act as 'political lubricants' by conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations. The Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly are also roles typically held by these senior lawmakers. However, the 'purge theory' that arises every election poses a threat to senior lawmakers. This general election is no exception. Who among the senior lawmakers are challenging for the next Speaker and Deputy Speaker positions?

As of the 15th, the longest-serving lawmaker in the 21st National Assembly is Park Byeong-seok of the Democratic Party of Korea, who is serving his sixth term. Park served as the Speaker of the 21st National Assembly from June 2020 to May 2022. There are 12 lawmakers with five terms, including Speaker Kim Jin-pyo and lawmakers Jeong Jin-seok and Jo Jeong-sik. These lawmakers form the most senior group in the Assembly. Speaker Kim and Park have declared their retirement from politics after the 21st Assembly. The other five-term lawmakers are campaigning again to win voters' support. If elected, they will fiercely compete with colleagues for the 'Speaker' position once more.

◆ Ruling Party, Will the Purge Theory Hit Senior Lawmakers in the Yeongnam Region?

After the crushing defeat in last year's by-election for the Gangseo District Office in Seoul, the People Power Party's 'In Yohan Innovation Committee' demanded that pro-Yoon (close to President Yoon Seok-yeol) politicians, senior lawmakers from Yeongnam, and party leadership either run in difficult constituencies or not run at all. Although the Innovation Committee ended early, weakening the difficult constituency candidacy theory, it may resurface during the candidate nomination committee stage as the 'Yeongnam senior lawmakers purge theory.'

Among the seven People Power Party senior lawmakers with five or more terms, four represent constituencies in Yeongnam: Kim Young-seon (Changwon Uichang, Gyeongnam), Seo Byung-soo (Jingap, Busan), Cho Kyung-tae (Saha-eul, Busan), and Joo Ho-young (Suseong Gap, Daegu). They have been targets of direct or indirect difficult constituency candidacy demands but all plan to run again in their current districts. Seo stated at a book launch event on the 10th, "The People Power Party must win this general election. I will work hard for the party's victory," but regarding the difficult constituency demand, he said, "A district lawmaker should never say they will go elsewhere or not run lightly."

Interestingly, unlike Yeongnam, Honam has fewer senior lawmakers, possibly due to political fluctuations. Except for Lee Gae-ho, a three-term Democratic Party lawmaker (Damyang, Hampyeong, Yeonggwang, Jangseong, Jeonnam), most are first- or second-term lawmakers. This is influenced by the past 'People's Party' surge and subsequent shift to the Democratic Party, which led to a large-scale purge of senior lawmakers.

On the other hand, lawmakers from the Chungcheong region, considered a 'casting vote' area in elections, are relatively less affected by the purge theory. Since competitiveness in the general election is prioritized, seniority alone rarely makes them targets for purging. Rather, the 'powerful senior theory' can be effective. The People Power Party has three five-term lawmakers in Chungcheong: Lee Sang-min (Yuseong, Daejeon), Jeong Woo-taek (Cheongju Sangdang, Chungbuk), and Jeong Jin-seok (Gongju, Buyeo, Cheongyang, Chungnam).

Last year, whether senior lawmakers would sacrifice themselves was the biggest focus in candidate nominations. However, the mood has changed with the new year. Han Dong-hoon, the People Power Party's Emergency Response Committee Chairman, recently made remarks with a different nuance from the 'senior sacrifice theory.' After a committee meeting in Busan on the 11th, when asked about the nomination direction in Busan, Han said, "I don't think it's a matter of saying those with a certain number of terms must run. Those who can run and win should run." Inside and outside the party, some analysts say the senior sacrifice theory is wavering as they watch the recruitment of five-term lawmaker Lee Sang-min, who defected from the Democratic Party.

◆ Opposition, Will the Winds of Generational Change Blow?

For the Democratic Party, the purge theory focuses more on generations than regions. In Honam, considered a stronghold, most lawmakers are first- or second-term, and five-term senior lawmakers are mainly in the metropolitan area or Chungcheong region. The core of the Democratic Party's purge theory targets the '86 Generation' (those born in the 1960s and who entered university in the 1980s). Lawmakers like Ahn Min-seok (Osan, Gyeonggi) and Jo Jeong-sik (Siheung-eul, Gyeonggi), who belong to the 86 Generation, may face pressure from the generational change theory. However, Jo serves as the party's Secretary-General responsible for practical affairs, and Ahn belongs to the mainstream group, so whether the purge theory will materialize remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the People Power Party is framing this election as a judgment against the 'privileged activist faction,' so depending on public opinion trends, the 86 Generation change theory may resurface.

Additionally, the Democratic Party has senior lawmakers such as Byun Jae-il (Cheongju, Cheongwon, Chungbuk) and Seol Hoon (Bucheon-eul, Gyeonggi). Byun is 76 years old, one year younger than Speaker Kim Jin-pyo. Seol, a representative non-mainstream within the party, has maintained a 'rookie' status despite former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon's defection. He is reportedly determined to run in the general election after winning the party primary. However, for third- and fourth-term lawmakers, the generational change theory could pose a realistic threat, as many from the 86 Generation, including former university student council presidents, are concentrated in this group.

◆ Senior Lawmakers' Dream: The Speaker of the National Assembly

Senior lawmakers with five or more terms often mention their potential to become the next Speaker of the National Assembly in their regions. They argue that if their party wins the general election and becomes the majority, their seniority will make them the Speaker. The Speaker, second in protocol after the President, represents the legislature as its head. Winning this election would allow them to exercise political power by giving their long-time supporters in their constituencies a 'final gift' as politicians. They use the strategy of appealing, "Next time, I can become the Speaker. Please support me one last time." In political circles, it is said that unless one is a presidential candidate, the last wish of senior lawmakers is to become the Speaker. This is because the Speaker is considered the highest honor a politician can achieve aside from the presidency.

Senior lawmakers also have their say on the generational change theory. A five-term Democratic Party lawmaker said, "Currently, the National Assembly is run mostly by the passion of first- and second-term lawmakers, which causes politics to deepen social anger and conflict. When the passion and anger of first- and second-term lawmakers combine with the experience of senior lawmakers, a political culture that respects diversity can be created." Another senior lawmaker who said he would challenge for the Speaker position if re-elected stated, "I want to solidify the foundation for regional development that I have built so far and play a final role in transforming politics from one of hatred to one that respects diversity."