2024 China Economic Forecast and Outlook Announcement
The Chinese Academy of Sciences, a national academic institution in China, has forecasted that China's economic growth rate will reach 5.3% this year.
According to China's Pengpai News on the 9th, the Prediction Science Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced at the '2024 China Economic Forecast and Outlook' presentation that China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 5.3% compared to last year. This is slightly higher than the government's target for last year (around 5.0%).
Quarterly, the growth is expected to follow a "low in the first half, high in the second half" trend, with 5.0% in Q1, 5.3% in Q2, 5.5% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4. Yang Qiuhong, Deputy Director of the Prediction Center, explained, "The economy will operate steadily this year." Regarding external trade demand, the research team divided the economy into the US economy and non-US economies, predicting rapid growth overall in the US, while non-US countries are expected to experience a "stagflation" trend.
Concerning external demand, they expressed concerns that "due to pessimistic demand, there are significant downside risks to trade, and the US's import dependence on China is decreasing," while also identifying positive factors, stating, "Technological innovation will help the recovery of exports such as new energy vehicles and parts."
They also argued that new consumer markets must be created in response to the declining labor population and aging society. The research team stated, "There is an increasing demand for emotional 'companionship,'" and predicted, "AI product services that assist and replace labor, social care and healthcare services, home appliances and furniture suitable for small households, pets, and robots will create new demand." They added, "From the perspective of changes in consumer psychology, consumers are paying more attention to cost-effectiveness, health, and environmental protection of products."
Meanwhile, senior Chinese officials estimated that China's economic growth rate reached 5.2% last year, achieving the target. Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and Director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, stated at the 28th "China Capital Market Forum" held in Beijing on the 6th, "As a result of joint efforts from all sectors, it is estimated that China's economic growth rate reached 5.2% last year."
Earlier, in December last year, the official Xinhua News Agency cited remarks from a senior official of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, the Communist Party's economic management body, reporting, "Experts and scholars expect the economic growth rate for this year (2023) to reach around 5.2%," and "It appears that economic growth has successfully met the target."
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