Kim Ju-ae, who turned 11 this year, is a subject of divided opinions among experts regarding whether she will become North Korea's next supreme leader. Although North Korean state media have become more overt in praising Kim Ju-ae this year, solidifying the succession theory, many analysts argue that scenes such as Chairman Kim Jong-un kissing Kim Ju-ae on the cheek serve to support regime stability and the idolization of Kim Jong-un. It is pointed out that the authority to govern nuclear weapons and the people is still difficult to find.
North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un attended the 75th anniversary celebration of the Founding of the Korean People's Army (February 8) with his daughter Kim Ju-ae, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on February 8 last year. [Image source=Yonhap News]
Kim Ju-ae Emerging as North Korea's Successor
Born in 2013, Kim Ju-ae first appeared publicly in November 2022. Considering North Korea's past precedents for revealing successors, there were few expectations that a young girl like Kim Ju-ae would succeed Kim Jong-un. However, early last year, North Korean media elevated the honorifics used for Kim Ju-ae from "beloved daughter" to "honored daughter," and the level of respect shown in official settings increased, giving momentum to the succession theory. The controversy was further fueled by the public reveal of a white horse presumed to belong to Kim Ju-ae.
Recently, the promotion of Kim Ju-ae has become even more blatant. Although foreign media reports that North Korea called Kim Ju-ae "the shining young female general of Joseon" in November last year have not been officially confirmed by North Korea, it is hard to deny the succession theory when seeing her appear at events alongside Chairman Kim wearing leather coats and sunglasses, or receiving abundant affection from him at the New Year's celebration performance. Kim Ju-ae, who mainly accompanied military sites, was also seen at a chicken factory the day before. This can be interpreted as the formal start of her training as a successor encompassing military, economic, and public welfare affairs.
North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un was reported by Korean Central TV on the 1st to have watched the 2024 New Year Celebration Performance at the Pyongyang May 1 Stadium. Chairman Kim is seen giving a cheek kiss to Kim Ju-ae.
Cheek Kiss... "Lack of Governing Authority"
However, experts still caution that it is too early to jump to conclusions. Rather than simply saying that a young female successor does not fit in the strongly patriarchal culture of North Korea, the reason is found in a lack of authority. Im Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said, "Naming a successor shows the future of the North Korean regime. While senior officials may outwardly applaud, it is questionable whether they are truly convinced, and whether Kim Jong-un believes this is the best option."
Experts also analyzed that the image of Chairman Kim kissing Kim Ju-ae on the cheek, which was broadcast on Korean Central TV on the 1st during the New Year's grand performance, may contradict the authority expected of a North Korean successor.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, explained, "Unlike in the past, the current North Korean leader holds the authority to control and command nuclear weapons. Therefore, legitimacy and experience in the military are necessary, but leadership capable of handling nuclear weapons must also be considered, and Kim Ju-ae lacks these elements." He added, "Since there is no attempt to sufficiently grant authority, Kim Ju-ae may be an icon showing that the future generation is secure."
There are also opinions that Kim Ju-ae is being used to accelerate the idolization of Chairman Kim, who turned 40 this year, or that this is a psychological warfare tactic aimed at South Korea to divert attention from North Korea’s advancing nuclear missile capabilities by focusing on the succession issue. Hong said, "We need to carefully watch whether North Korea will take actions to grant Kim Ju-ae the authority to be idolized as a successor. More information accumulation is necessary."
If She Is the Successor... There May Be a 'Co-Rulership' Period
Nonetheless, the prevailing analysis is that Kim Ju-ae is currently the most likely successor in North Korea. The National Intelligence Service recently stated, "There are variables," but also said, "At this point, Kim Ju-ae is the most likely successor to Chairman Kim." In North Korea, it has already become customary constitutional practice for successors to come from the Paektu bloodline, and the leader holds absolute authority beyond gender. From this perspective, Kim Ju-ae’s age and gender are not insurmountable obstacles to succession.
Introducing Kim Ju-ae early may also be a move to highlight and imprint the image of a leader from a young age, reducing resistance within North Korean society. If Kim Ju-ae is indeed the successor, there is also analysis that a co-rulership period, like during Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il’s time, will occur. Kim Jong-il was designated as successor in 1974 and co-ruled for about 20 years until Kim Il-sung’s death.
Ko Yu-hwan, professor emeritus at Dongguk University, said, "Although Kim Jong-un is only 40, his health could deteriorate or there could be a sudden emergency. It is possible that the succession will be officially declared and later a co-rulership will take place to empower the successor."
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