[Global Focus] The Year of the Super Election with 4 Billion Voters Changes the Global Landscape

76 Elections Worldwide This Year... Global Turmoil
Biden vs. Trump Rematch... US-China Proxy War in Taiwan
War Between Ukraine and Russia at Stake... Far-Right Gains in EU Elections

The year 2024 is a 'super election year' with 4.2 billion people voting in 76 countries worldwide. Including South Korea, which will hold a general election in April, more than half of the world's population will cast their votes. Meanwhile, international affairs are becoming increasingly uncertain as competition and confrontation intensify. The power struggle between the United States and China is becoming fiercer, and the war between Ukraine and Russia has entered a prolonged phase. The outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian armed faction Hamas has also heightened tensions in the Middle East. As a result, the outcomes of elections in major countries are expected to have a significant impact on the unstable global political and economic landscape. Depending on the election results, policy directions in various fields such as diplomacy, security, and the economy could change not only in South Korea but also in other countries.

Trump Returns to the US Presidential Race... Rematch with Biden Expected

The biggest focus of the global public in this super election year is the US presidential election scheduled for November 5 (local time). It is a turning point that will determine the direction of world affairs for the next four years. The US presidential race officially begins on the 15th with the Iowa caucuses.

This US presidential election is likely to be a rematch between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Within the Republican Party, Trump is leading, followed by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. According to the US polling organization FiveThirtyEight, as of the 4th, Trump’s average support nationwide among Republican candidates stands at 61.3%, an overwhelming first place. However, Trump faces judicial risks as he has been indicted for inciting the January 6 Capitol riot in 2020. Recently, the Colorado Supreme Court and the state of Maine ruled to exclude Trump from the state Republican presidential primaries. On the Democratic side, barring any surprises, President Biden is expected to run for re-election.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

With 10 months left until the election, it is difficult to make a definitive judgment, but if the Trump vs. Biden rematch occurs, Trump is currently favored to win. The US political media outlet The Hill reported on December 30 last year that an average of 509 polls showed Trump’s support at 45.4%, slightly higher than Biden’s 43.4%.

If Trump wins, existing Biden administration policies on trade, climate, the Ukraine-Russia war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and China strategy are expected to be completely overturned. The impact on South Korea’s economy, which has a large trade surplus with the US, would be significant. Trump has repeatedly stated that he would repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a key Biden policy. He also plans to raise tariffs on all imports by an additional 10 percentage points. He has claimed he would immediately scrap the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), established to strengthen economic cooperation with Asian allies. The British economic magazine The Economist stated in a November column last year that "the biggest risk the world faces next year is Trump."

Taiwan Presidential Election: Proxy Battle Between the US and China

The Taiwan presidential election on the 13th is a proxy battle between the US and China. The election results will provide insight into the future Northeast Asian situation. Currently, the race is a two-strong-one-weak structure, with the pro-independence, pro-US ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the pro-China main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) in a fierce contest, and the centrist third party People First Party (PFP) in third place. According to a poll released by Taiwan’s United Daily News on the 2nd, just before the ban on publishing polls, the DPP candidates Lai Ching-te for president and Xiao Meiqin for vice president had 32% support, the KMT candidates Hou You-yi and Chao Shao-kang had 27%, and the PFP candidates Ke Wen-je and Wu Hsin-ying had 21%. A similar poll by ETtoday on the same day showed DPP candidates at 38.9%, KMT at 35.8%, and PFP at 22.4%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If the pro-US DPP retains power, changes in cross-strait (China-Taiwan) and US-China relations will be limited, but China is expected to increase pressure on Taiwan. If the pro-China KMT takes power, significant changes are anticipated. The US is pressuring China by blocking access to advanced technologies such as semiconductors to maintain technological supremacy, and Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor foundry. If the pro-China KMT governs, the US’s position in the Taiwan Strait will weaken, creating gaps in Asia-Pacific security strategy.

China has launched an all-out campaign to influence the Taiwan election. Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned cross-strait unification as a "historical inevitability" in his New Year’s address. Recently, suspected Chinese 'spy balloons' (which China claims are for scientific research) have been spotted multiple times over Taiwan. China is employing a 'carrot and stick' strategy by suspending tariff reductions on 12 Taiwanese chemical products, resuming imports of Taiwanese grouper fish, and expanding travel.

Outlook on the Ukraine-Russia War... Elections Also Scheduled in India and the EU

Ukraine and Russia, currently at war, also have presidential elections scheduled for March this year. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared his candidacy, the outcome is widely seen as predetermined. More attention is on how much support Putin will secure. If Putin wins with high approval amid declining international support for Ukraine, he may strengthen military pressure on Ukraine by issuing additional mobilization orders. Conversely, if his support is lower than expected, he may lose the momentum to continue the war.

Putin, seeking a fifth term, has been in power since 1999. If re-elected, he will remain president until 2030. He was previously elected in 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2018.

Ukraine originally planned to hold its presidential election in March as well. However, due to martial law imposed because of the war, holding a normal election is difficult. President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his intention to run for re-election but is likely to postpone the election due to wartime conditions.

In April-May, India, the world’s most populous democracy, will hold general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win. According to a December poll by Morning Consult, Modi received positive ratings from 76% of Indian citizens. Opposing him is the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), a coalition of 28 parties.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

In June, elections for the European Parliament are scheduled. Voters in the 27 European Union (EU) member states will elect 720 members to serve five-year terms until 2029. The election results will influence immigration policy, support for Ukraine, and climate policies.

There is also interest in how many seats far-right parties, which have been gaining strength across Europe, will secure. According to a December poll by European Elects, the far-right European Parliament group 'Identity and Democracy (ID)' has 12% support, and 'European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)' have 11%. Combined, this is roughly equal to the largest European Parliament group, the 'European People’s Party (EPP).'