[General Election Candidates] ① Presidential Office... 61.3% Compete Against People Power Party Lawmakers

Analysis of Election Commission Lists Shows 34 Candidates Declared
No Contests in Honam and Other Difficult Areas... Notable Concentration in TK and PK
Age Distribution: 40s, 50s, 30s, 60s... Low Female Representation

[General Election Candidates] ①Presidential Office

With the arrival of the new year 2024, the political landscape for the 22nd general election has officially opened. Although 98 days remain, public sentiment remains shrouded in uncertainty. Unexpected variables have emerged, such as the attack on Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. The ruling and opposition parties are rapidly moving into the candidate nomination phase. Voters are observing the nomination process to judge whether reforms are being made. They assess the 'direction' and 'figures' that the parties aim for. Political parties do not only innovate; sometimes they regress. Since this election is about selecting representatives of the people for the next four years, it is important to scrutinize these candidates carefully. This series examines candidates by major sectors and generations.

One of the biggest points of interest in this general election is the candidacy of personnel from the Presidential Office. A total of 34 individuals, including former senior secretaries and administrative officers, have thrown their hats into the ring. These individuals best understand the Yoon Seok-yeol administration’s governing philosophy. However, rather than running in constituencies held by opposition lawmakers, they mainly run in strongholds of the ruling party such as the Seoul metropolitan area, Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), and Busan-Gyeongnam (PK). This is analyzed as a strategy prioritizing electability and stability. The core group is in their 40s and 50s, with more candidates in their 30s than in their 60s. While this is seen as a 'younger' trend, criticism arises over the low proportion of female aides running, which is only in the 10% range, suggesting bias.

Some interpret this as reflecting President Yoon Seok-yeol’s urgency to secure a majority of seats. Given the differences in understanding of state affairs between the Presidential Office and the government, if these individuals succeed in entering the legislature, they will become significant supporters of the Yoon administration’s governance.

In the same context, President Yoon placed secretaries from the Presidential Office, with whom he had worked closely for over a year, into the cabinet. At that time, during a situation of a minority ruling party, he minimized ministerial appointments that could face confirmation hearing risks. Instead, he replaced 13 vice-minister level officials who could be appointed immediately upon nomination, five of whom were from the Presidential Secretariat.

Staff Concentrated in Seoul Metropolitan Area, TK, PK, and Chungcheong... Up to Three Competing in Gumi-eul

On the 3rd, Asia Economy analyzed the preliminary candidate lists from the National Election Commission and found that a total of 34 candidates from the Presidential Office are running in the general election. There are 5 in Seoul, 7 in Gyeonggi, 2 in Incheon, 3 in North Chungcheong, 2 in South Chungcheong, 6 in North Gyeongsang, 1 in Daegu, 1 in South Gyeongsang, and 4 in Busan. Excluding 3 individuals whose candidacy or constituencies have not been officially confirmed, 14 out of 31 candidates (45.2%) are running in the Seoul metropolitan area. Seven (22.6%) are in Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), five (16.1%) in Chungcheong, and five (16.1%) in Busan-Gyeongnam (PK). Meanwhile, no candidates have registered or announced runs in Honam or Jeju regions yet.

Among them, 19 (61.3%) are running in constituencies held by incumbent lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party, and 12 (38.7%) in constituencies held by Democratic Party incumbents. It is expected that after competing in preliminary primaries with the backing of Yoon’s support base (Yunsim), they will conduct stable election campaigns as main candidates. One candidate is running in a vacant constituency, one in an independent-held constituency (Kim Jin-pyo, Speaker of the National Assembly), and one candidate’s constituency is undecided.

At the senior secretary level, former Senior Secretary for Social Affairs Ahn Sang-hoon is likely to run in Gangnam-gap, Seoul; former Senior Secretary for Public Relations Kim Eun-hye in Bundang-gu-eul, Seongnam, Gyeonggi; former Senior Secretary for Civil Society Kang Seung-gyu in Hongseong-Yesan, South Chungcheong; and former Second Deputy Director of the National Security Office Lim Jong-deuk in Yeongju-Yeongyang-Bonghwa-Uljin, North Gyeongsang. Except for Bundang-gu-eul, where Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Byung-wook is active, these candidates are running in constituencies held by People Power Party lawmakers (Tae Young-ho, Hong Moon-pyo, Park Hyung-soo).

This trend is also seen among secretary and administrative officer levels. Kang Myung-gu, called President Yoon’s 'right-hand man,' who left the Presidential Office on December 27 last year, and Heo Seong-woo, former Secretary for Public Proposals who resigned early in September 2022, will compete in Gumi-eul, North Gyeongsang (Kim Young-sik, People Power Party). Kim Chan-young, former administrative officer in the Legal Secretary’s office, is considering running in either Gumi-gap or Gumi-eul, potentially leading to three Presidential Office alumni competing in the primary. Jeon Gwang-sam, former Secretary for Citizen Communication, officially declared candidacy in Daegu Buk-gu-gap.

On the other hand, former Secretary for Local Administration Seo Seung-woo is running in Cheongju Cheongwon-gu, North Chungcheong, the constituency of five-term Democratic Party lawmaker Byun Jae-il. Former Political Secretary Jeon Hee-kyung plans to run in Uijeongbu-gap, Gyeonggi, the constituency of Democratic Party lawmaker Oh Young-hwan. Although Oh declared he would not run in last April’s general election, making the seat open, it is considered a tough district for the ruling party, as former National Assembly Speaker Moon Hee-sang, a senior advisor to the Democratic Party, was consecutively elected from the 17th to 20th National Assembly.

Bold Administrative Officers Challenge Senior Lawmakers’ Districts... Young Aides Advance: 30s and 40s Outnumber 50s and 60s

‘Brave administrative officers’ challenging districts held by senior opposition lawmakers also stand out. Former Senior Administrative Officer Shin Jae-kyung from the General Affairs Secretary’s office is running in Namdong-gu-eul, Incheon, the constituency of three-term Democratic Party lawmaker Yoon Kwan-seok. Former Administrative Officer Lee Seung-hwan from the Political Secretary’s office is running in Jungnang-gu-eul, Seoul, the constituency of three-term Democratic Party lawmaker Park Hong-geun. Former Administrative Officer Kim Seong-yong from the Civil Society Senior Secretary’s office has registered as a preliminary candidate in Songpa-gu-b, Seoul, where three-term Democratic Party lawmaker Nam In-soon is active. Notably, female administrative officers Yeo Myung, former Secretary for Citizen Communication, and Jeon Ji-hyun, former Administrative Officer in the Public Relations Senior Secretary’s office, have declared candidacies in Dongdaemun-gap, Seoul (Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Kyu-baek) and Guri, Gyeonggi (Democratic Party lawmaker Yoon Ho-jung), respectively.

Conversely, former Administrative Officer Jeong Ho-yoon from the Public Service Discipline Secretary’s office, former Administrative Officer Bae Cheol-soon from the Political Secretary’s office, and former Administrative Officer Kim Yoo-jin from the Civil Society Senior Secretary’s office are running in Busan Saha-gu-eul (five-term ruling party lawmaker Cho Kyung-tae), Changwon Uichang-gu, Gyeongnam (Kim Young-seon), and Busan Jin-gu-eul (Seo Byung-soo), respectively. The Hongseong-Yesan constituency in South Chungcheong, where former Senior Secretary Kang Seung-gyu registered as a preliminary candidate, has been held by Hong Moon-pyo for four consecutive terms. Former Administrative Officer Lee Dong-seok from the New Media Secretary’s office chose Cheongju, North Chungcheong, where three-term lawmaker Lee Jong-dae is active.

Additionally, candidates include Kim Ki-heung (Yeonsu-gu-eul, Incheon), Kim Bo-hyun (Gimpo-gap, Gyeonggi), Lee Seung-hwan (Jungnang-gu-eul, Seoul), Kim In-gyu (Seo-gu and Dong-gu, Busan), Heo Cheong-hoe (Pocheon-Gapyeong, Gyeonggi), Lee Byung-hoon (Pohang Nam-Ulneung, North Gyeongsang), Kwon Oh-hyun (Seongdong-gap, Seoul), Choi Ji-woo (Jecheon-Danyang, North Chungcheong), Kim Dae-nam (Yongin-gap, Gyeonggi), Shin Jin-young (Cheonan-byeong, South Chungcheong), Lee Chang-jin (Yeonje-gu, Busan), and Lee Byung-hoon (Pohang Nam-gu and Ulleung, North Gyeongsang).

As People Power Party Emergency Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon formed a relatively young emergency committee with members in their 20s to 50s, the Presidential Office shows a similar trend. Among candidates from the Presidential Office, there are 13 in their 40s, 12 in their 50s, 7 in their 30s, and 2 in their 60s. The youngest candidate from the Presidential Office is former National Security Office aide Kim Won-jae (31), preparing to run in Suwon-mu, Gyeonggi. However, female preliminary candidates are only 5 out of 34 (14.7%), including former Senior Secretary Kim Eun-hye, former Secretary Jeon Hee-kyung, former Administrative Officer Yeo Myung, former Administrative Officer Jeon Ji-hyun, and former Administrative Officer Jo Ji-yeon running in Gyeongsan, North Gyeongsang.

Regarding education, five hold doctoral degrees, 14 have master’s degrees or have completed master’s coursework, 14 have bachelor’s degrees or are currently enrolled in master’s programs, and one dropped out of university. So far, five candidates have submitted criminal records (including violations of the Act on the Aggravated Punishment of Specific Crimes, drunk driving, Public Official Election Act violations, defamation, etc.) to the National Election Commission.

Local Discontent Over Mass Yunsim Candidacies... Individual Capability and Image Are Key

There are variables. Discontent among some local lawmakers and party branch chiefs who have been preparing their constituencies for the election is spreading easily, so quick resolution is necessary. Since the People Power Party’s National Assembly members’ workshop last fall, it is known that the party leadership requested President Yoon to draft some Presidential Office aides for the general election, and President Yoon readily accepted, which has highlighted conflicts.

Even if these grievances are resolved, the risks to be borne if they lose the election are considerable. Since this election is effectively framed as 'President Yoon Seok-yeol versus Lee Jae-myung,' their defeat could significantly affect trust in the president’s governing philosophy and policies.

However, with the president’s approval rating not high, competition in nominations and elections depends entirely on 'individual capability,' analysts say. To benefit from the so-called 'Presidential Office premium' effect in the general election, a minimum approval rating of 40% is needed, but President Yoon’s approval has hovered in the mid-30% range for months, making individual differentiation the key to victory or defeat.

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, “It is not unusual for many Presidential Office aides to run in the general election. Given President Yoon’s low approval rating, the key will be how well individuals have built their capabilities and image rather than their background as Presidential Office aides.”