Nearly Half of Constituencies with 122+α Seats at Stake
Seoul Election Hinges on Hangang Belt and Others
Attention on Whether 'Mega City' Will Shift Public Opinion in Gyeonggi-do
The Seoul metropolitan area is the most fiercely contested battleground in the general election. About half of the total constituency seats are concentrated here. The direction of voter sentiment in the metropolitan area has often determined the ruling party in the National Assembly. Amid the debate between regime stability and regime judgment, region-specific development issues are expected to influence the flow of public opinion.
In the last 20th general election, out of 122 seats (Seoul 49 seats, Gyeonggi 59 seats, Incheon 13 seats), the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) won a landslide victory with 103 seats, buoyed by favorable evaluations of its COVID-19 response. Thanks to its strong performance in the metropolitan area, the DPK secured 180 seats in the National Assembly, surpassing the framework of the National Assembly Advancement Act. The United Future Party (predecessor of the People Power Party), embroiled in nomination controversies, managed to win only 16 seats. Additionally, Justice Party lawmaker Sim Sang-jung and People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun (then independent) were elected. However, since the last general election, through the presidential and local elections, the relative advantage of the DPK has considerably weakened. The support base of the People Power Party appears to have strengthened.
Looking at recent election trends, the People Power Party has shown strength in Seoul, while the DPK has been strong in Gyeonggi Province. In the 20th presidential election, President Yoon Suk-yeol (People Power Party candidate) received 50.6% in Seoul, ahead of DPK leader Lee Jae-myung (DPK candidate), who garnered 45.7%. Conversely, in Gyeonggi Province, Lee led with 50.9% over Yoon's 45.6%. In the local elections, the People Power Party’s Oh Se-hoon was elected mayor of Seoul, but the DPK’s Kim Dong-yeon won the gubernatorial race in Gyeonggi Province.
Recent opinion polls (conducted by Dong-A Ilbo through Research & Research from the 26th to 28th of last month, interviewing 802, 824, and 804 voters in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon respectively via landline and mobile phone interviews) have confirmed these trends. In Seoul, the People Power Party received 34.6%, narrowly leading the DPK’s 33.5% within the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points). In Gyeonggi, the DPK led with 40.7%, surpassing the People Power Party’s 30.0% beyond the margin of error. In Incheon, the race was close with the People Power Party at 35.1% and the DPK at 34.7%. Detailed poll results can be found on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
In Seoul elections, the results in the so-called ‘Hangang Belt’?including Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong, Gwangjin, and Dongjak districts?are expected to determine the outcome. These areas have historically seen close contests without a clear dominance by either party, so public opinion here is likely to influence the overall Seoul election landscape. Currently, except for Yongsan’s People Power Party lawmaker Kwon Young-se, most of the Hangang Belt seats are held by DPK lawmakers. In Mapo Gap and Eul, lawmakers Roh Woong-rae and Jung Cheong-rae; in Jung and Seongdong Gap and Eul, floor leader Hong Ik-pyo and lawmaker Park Sung-joon; in Gwangjin Eul, lawmaker Ko Min-jung; and in Dongjak Gap and Eul, lawmakers Kim Byung-gi and Lee Soo-jin won in the last general election.
In Gyeonggi Province, the DPK’s lead is confirmed by opinion polls. However, in areas discussed for incorporation into Seoul under the ruling party’s initiative?such as Gimpo, Guri, Hanam, Gwangmyeong, Goyang, and Bucheon, collectively called the ‘Mega City’?the debate over Seoul incorporation is expected to become a key issue in the general election. Other regional development issues likely to influence voter sentiment include the upcoming establishment of the Gyeonggi Northern Special Self-Governing Province (Bukjado) in April, the first-phase new town special law, and the early opening of the GTX A line section from Suseo to Dongtan at the end of March.
Meanwhile, as concentration at the metropolitan area’s gateway accelerates, the number of metropolitan seats is expected to increase by at least one in this year’s general election. However, the redistricting issue has not yet been resolved. Last year, the redistricting commission proposed adjusting Bucheon Gap, Eul, Byeong, and Jeong into Gap, Eul, and Byeong, but the DPK argues that the Seoul Gangnam Gap, Eul, and Byeong districts should be consolidated instead of Bucheon. Additionally, the Seoul Nowon Gap, Eul, and Byeong districts are likely to be adjusted to Gap and Eul, and Gyeonggi’s Ansan’s current four districts may be reduced to three. Conversely, in Incheon’s Seo-gu, the Gap and Eul districts may be divided into Gap, Eul, and Byeong; Hanam may be divided into Hanam Gap and Eul; and Hwaseong City’s Gap, Eul, and Byeong districts may be divided into Gap, Eul, Byeong, and Jeong.
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