[General Election D-99] ① Uncertain Outlook, 'New Party Impact' and 'Reform Implementation' as Key Variables

Regime Evaluation VS Parliamentary Evaluation, 'The Second Presidential Election'
'Regime Check Theory' Rises but Democratic Party Unity Weakens

The 22nd National Assembly election on April 10 is now 99 days away. What choice will the turbulent public sentiment make? It is not easy to predict the outcome amid rapidly changing political situations and economic and technological shifts. Several fluctuations are expected ahead. The general election results serve as a barometer to forecast the future direction of the Republic of Korea. The countdown has begun. The general election is also the starting point for the rising ambitions of potential presidential candidates aiming for the 2027 presidential election.

This election is a turning point for the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. If victorious, it will gain momentum to powerfully push through the second half of its term. However, if defeated, it is expected to suffer from opposition attacks and a significant decline in internal drive. The April 10 general election is a moment of 'evaluation' by the people for both ruling and opposition parties. For the ruling party, it is a 'midterm evaluation' as it is held in the third year of governance. For the opposition, it is an 'assessment of parliamentary power' after securing a majority of seats. The framing battle between the ruling and opposition parties over which evaluation will have a stronger effect is intensifying. Essentially, it is shaping up to be a 'second 2022 presidential election.'

Handonghun, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, and Lee Jaemyung, Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, are meeting on the 29th at the Democratic Party leader's office in the National Assembly. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

The People Power Party is risking everything on winning the general election by overhauling its leadership. The 'Han Dong-hoon emergency committee chairman' system appointed non-political figures from the 2040 generation, such as Kim Kyung-ryul and Koo Ja-ryong, as emergency committee members. The average age is 44.4 years. This is tantamount to declaring a large-scale reform and generational change in the upcoming candidate nominations. The Democratic Party of Korea swiftly began preparing for the general election by appointing Im Hyuk-baek, an emeritus professor at Korea University, as the nomination management committee chairman. Centered on leader Lee Jae-myung, they are accelerating the consolidation of their support base by putting the 'judgment on the Yoon Seok-yeol administration' front and center. Their strategy is to win the general election and secure a foothold for regaining power.

So far, various opinion polls show that the 'government check theory' is dominant. In a survey commissioned by Sisa Journal and conducted by Jowon C&I on December 11-12 last year with 2,001 adults nationwide, the 'government check theory' was at 53.9%, leading the 'government support theory' (39.7%) by 14.2 percentage points. (The margin of error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

In a poll commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo and conducted by Gallup Korea, released on the 1st, 53% responded that 'many opposition candidates should be elected to check the current government,' while 39% said 'many ruling party candidates should be elected to support the current government.' (The survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 1,017 adults nationwide over two days from the 29th of last month. The response rate was 14.6%, and the margin of error was up to ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

However, the Democratic Party has not fully embraced the 'government check theory.' In fact, it sometimes trails the People Power Party in party support. Yoon Tae-gon, head of the political analysis office at DeMoa, predicted, "The general election is fundamentally a midterm evaluation, so the ruling party is at a disadvantage. However, the ruling party has a higher possibility of creating variables than the opposition."

Given this situation, the structure and flow of the race can change at any time. The most notable aspect regarding the structure is the disruptive power of new parties. The 'Lee Jun-seok new party' has become visible, and the 'Lee Nak-yeon new party' is entering the final countdown. The new parties of Geum Tae-seop and Yang Hyang-ja are also likely to join them. Which side the 'new party' forces siphon votes from will decisively affect the outcome. In the 2020 21st general election, 18 constituencies were decided by less than 3,000 votes, and 29 constituencies by less than 5,000 votes. The 'new parties' are expected to influence election results in the metropolitan area, among people in their 20s and 30s, and in Honam.

Regarding remaining variables, political commentator Yoo Chang-sun predicted, "The competition between the ruling and opposition parties to reform themselves will decide the outcome." Professor Park Myung-ho of Dongguk University's Department of Political Science forecasted, "Who shows reform, integration, and a future-oriented image, and how the election system is ultimately decided, are the remaining variables." Yoon Tae-gon diagnosed, "The opposition's variable is said to be leader Lee Jae-myung's judicial risk, but the essential and structural problem is supply-demand mismatch." He analyzed that the large number of candidates running increases instability and centrifugal forces.