Experts on North Korea in Unison... "North Korea Provokes Targeting South Korea-US Election"

Targeting South Korea General Election in April Next Year and U.S. Presidential Election in November
Possibility of Election Interference Using Additional Nuclear Tests

North Korea is highly likely to provoke ahead of next year’s elections in South Korea and the United States, according to experts on North Korea.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Park Yong-han, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), stated in a keynote presentation at the ‘KIDA North Korean Military Forum’ held on the 13th, "North Korea may provoke with the intent to interfere in South Korea’s general election in April and the U.S. presidential election in November next year," adding, "They may conduct an additional nuclear test considering the pros and cons of former President Donald Trump’s election."

It appears that North Korea prefers the re-election of Trump, who agreed to two North Korea-U.S. summits, and this can be interpreted as meaning that North Korea might judge that escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula through a nuclear test would be advantageous for Trump’s election.

He emphasized the need to pay attention to the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s diplomatic relations with China and Russia next year, stating, "In the case of China, there is a possibility of inviting Kim Jong-un to hold a summit as part of seeking the optimal strategy considering China’s relations with the U.S. and North Korea."

Son Hyo-jong, a research fellow at KIDA, said, "North Korea is in a dilemma where it must secure its ruling legitimacy amid insufficient achievements, so it will create external crises by emphasizing an anti-U.S. stance and strengthen its military power," and forecasted, "It is clear that North Korea will continue development tests and enhancement of its insufficient weapons systems in 2024."

Kim Jin-ha, senior research fellow of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, predicted in the ‘2024 Korean Peninsula Situation Outlook’ released that day that North Korea will continue to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities next year. He also expressed concern that North Korea might attempt military provocations aiming for the election of candidates favorable to itself in South Korea’s April general election and the weakening of the South Korean government.

He said, "They may plan influence operations against South Korea, political psychological warfare, and online and offline terrorist acts," adding, "We must prepare for a North Korean-style hybrid warfare (complex warfare)."

This can be interpreted as meaning that North Korea may try to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula through provocations to empower relatively conciliatory political forces toward North Korea. However, there are many counterarguments that the possibility of North Korea provoking to interfere in elections is low, given that provocations usually result in a conservative consolidation effect.

Kim also said that North Korea might carry out military actions with significant ripple effects to pressure the U.S. and shift U.S. policy during the U.S. presidential election. It appears that North Korea prefers the re-election of former President Donald Trump, who agreed to two North Korea-U.S. summits, and this can be interpreted as meaning that North Korea might judge that escalating tensions through a major provocation would be advantageous for Trump’s election.