Survey of Over 500 Institutional Investors by French Investment Bank
Geopolitical risks such as North Korea, Russia, and Iran were identified by institutional investors worldwide as the biggest economic risk factors for next year.
According to Natixis, a French investment bank, the '2024 Outlook Survey' report, which surveyed over 500 institutional investors from 27 countries between October and November, contained these findings. The response rate citing geopolitical risks reached 49%, followed by a decrease in consumer spending (48%), central bank policy mistakes (42%), the Chinese economy (30%), and relations with China (28%). After the sharp rise in energy and food prices following Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine last year, the geopolitical landscape appears unstable as 2024 approaches, which has heightened concerns among institutional investors.
Additionally, 73% of respondents expected the division between BRICS and the West to continue, and 70% expressed concerns that strengthened alliances among Russia, North Korea, and Iran would lead to increased economic instability. The response rate for those who believe the war in Ukraine will continue into 2024 was also as high as 80%.
Other institutions share similar outlooks. According to a survey conducted by the Global Center of Bank of America targeting fund managers, 89% of respondents said geopolitical risks exceed normal levels.
Meanwhile, next year's U.S. presidential election is also considered a source of instability. Seventy-two percent of global institutional investors and 79% of North American institutional investors responded that the chaos of the U.S. election campaign would increase market anxiety. Fifty-nine percent of respondents predicted that skepticism about the election results could also negatively impact the market.
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