[Politics X-File] The 'Atlantis' of the General Election, An Adventure Toward the Island Called Jungdo

(48) 30-40% of Voters Are Centrist? General Election Results
Parties Targeting Centrist Votes Fall Short of Expectations
General Election Turnout Around 50%, But on the Rise

Editor's Note"Political X-Files" is a series that delivers the "all-time stories" recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

The legendary island "Atlantis" mentioned by Plato. The legend that an island somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean disappeared beneath the sea often appeared in science fiction comics. Does a paradise on earth really exist? If it does, where could it be? Can we really find Atlantis? Many people have nurtured childhood dreams by endlessly imagining Atlantis.

There is a similar existence in politics like Atlantis. It is a journey to find the "centrist island" that inevitably appears whenever there is an important election such as the National Assembly general election. The center is what those who are disgusted with the polarized reality of progressive and conservative politics aspire to. The scenario is that whoever occupies that ownerless island can break the two-party system.

The so-called centrist theory is more realistic than the legendary Atlantis. According to opinion polls, the ratio generally comes out as progressive 3, conservative 3, and centrist & non-response 4. The progressive and conservative ratios vary slightly depending on the poll, but the center usually shows a 30-40% ratio in most polls.

On the afternoon of the 11th, one day before the start of the preliminary candidate registration for the 22nd National Assembly election, staff members are preparing for registration reception at the Paldal-gu Election Commission in Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

This is the background for the scenario that if a party matching the centrist orientation is born, it can overturn the political landscape. In fact, in past general elections, new parties embarked on an adventurous journey to find the centrist island that seemed like a mirage, almost within reach but never quite attainable.

So, has there ever been a party that actually reached the centrist island and caused a stir in the general election? Looking back at the history of past general elections, the Unification National Party in the 14th general election in 1992 and the People's Party in the 20th general election in 2016 shook the two-party system and caused a third-party surge.

However, the dominant view is that the Unification National Party caused a stir in the general election thanks to the huge presence of Chung Ju-yung, the founder of the Hyundai Group. It is said that the political leader's capability moved public sentiment rather than a strategy targeting the center.

The People's Party also seems to be a successful case of centrist marketing politically, but in reality, it became the main player of the election surge based on the solid support from the Honam region. At that time, the People's Party produced 25 constituency winners, 23 of whom were from Honam constituencies. This means that the regional base, rather than ideological orientation, was the background for the election success.

Most new parties take the reform of the two-party system as the justification for their founding, but most end in failure. This is because they overlook the correlation between real politics and the centrist theory. Opinion polls seem to be tools to gauge the general political awareness of the people, but they have a critical limitation.

Opinion polls are designed to reflect the political will of the entire population, but actual elections are divided between voters who participate and those who do not. Election results are determined based on the votes of those who participate in voting.

Active voting groups of progressives and conservatives participate in elections come rain or shine, trying to reflect their political will. However, politically indifferent or low-involvement groups often choose not to vote rather than actively expressing their voting intention.

Looking at the turnout rates of past general elections, at least one out of three voters does not participate in voting.

In the most recent general election, the 21st general election in 2020, the nationwide turnout was recorded at 66.2%. This is slightly lower than the two-thirds turnout rate of 66.6%. Interestingly, among the general elections held since 2000, the 2020 general election had the highest turnout.

Looking at the turnout rates of past general elections: the 16th general election in 2000 was 57.2%, the 17th general election in 2004 was 60.6%, the 18th general election in 2008 was 46.1%, the 19th general election in 2012 was 54.2%, the 20th general election in 2016 was 58.0%, and the 21st general election in 2020 was 66.2%.

National Assembly Member Badge
Photo by Asia Economy DB

Only the 17th and 21st general elections had turnout rates exceeding 60%. The 18th general election turnout did not even reach 50%.

New parties that spring up like mushrooms at every election challenge themselves to find the centrist island, but centrist-leaning voters often abstain from voting. This is also why the existing two-party system, including the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea, does not easily collapse.

However, there is a variable. Since the introduction of early voting in the 2016 general election, turnout rates have shown an upward trend.

If the turnout in the 22nd general election scheduled for next April significantly exceeds the previous turnout (66%), the influence of voters who did not give their hearts to either the progressive or conservative sides could increase.

This is a favorable environmental change for parties targeting centrist votes. Many consider turnout as a key variable that will decide next year's general election for this reason.