Sinking Japan's 'Abepa'... Kishida Overhauls Team Amid Slush Fund Allegations

Kishida Likely to Dismiss 5 Ministers and Party Officials from 'Abe Faction'
Including Second-in-Command Matsuno, Cabinet Secretary, and Nishimura, Minister for Economic Security Promoting Semiconductor Revival

As the political slush fund scandal within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) escalates, Japanese media reported that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to dismiss key figures of the Abe faction from major cabinet and party positions amid allegations. Despite these individuals being the largest force in Japanese politics led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Kishida appears to have taken the drastic measure of "cutting ties" in response to concerns that his administration could collapse.

On the 11th, Asahi Shimbun cited multiple senior political sources, reporting that Kishida intends to replace Hirokazu Matsuno, Chief Cabinet Secretary; Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry; Koichi Hagiuda, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman; Tsuyoshi Takagi, LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman; and Hiroshige Seko, Secretary-General of the House of Councillors, all of whom are suspected of receiving slush funds.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The individuals under investigation belong to the Seiwa Policy Research Council within the party, commonly known as the "Abe faction," which was led by former Prime Minister Abe. They are accused of omitting revenues from political fundraising events (parties) from official records and pocketing the funds as slush money. Asahi described this as a "de facto dismissal," adding that "Prime Minister Kishida is preparing to completely purge the Abe faction leaders from key positions in the administration."

This has raised concerns that the Abe faction, the largest faction in Japanese politics, may effectively disappear from history. The Abe faction boasts 99 members out of 380 LDP lawmakers, making it the largest organization within the party. Although Abe’s assassination has been said to have left the faction without a central figure, its members still hold key government posts, maintaining their influence. Asahi quoted an anonymous senior Abe faction lawmaker saying, "Our faction has now collapsed. There is a shock within that the Abe faction is finished," reflecting the internal mood.

However, from Prime Minister Kishida’s perspective, the decision to "cut ties" appears to have been an unavoidable choice given the circumstances. The Kishida administration has struggled to rebound from approval ratings stuck in the 20% range. The political slush fund scandal initially targeted not only the Abe faction but also most LDP factions, including Kishida’s own faction. However, except for the Abe faction, most others have completed explanations by disclosing omitted entries. Consequently, the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office’s Special Investigation Division narrowed the investigation to the Abe faction, and reports began surfacing that key figures such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, considered the "second-in-command" of the administration from the Abe faction, were implicated.

Kishida had previously pursued a balanced factional politics within the cabinet by appointing Abe faction members. However, with the risk increasing as the prosecution’s investigation intensifies, he appears to have chosen a strategy to break through the crisis by severing ties with the problematic Abe faction. Matsuno, for example, is a core figure who served as secretary-general of the Seiwa Policy Research Council, the Abe faction’s stronghold, in 2014 and remains a member of its standing council, the decision-making body. There is also the possibility of additional charges emerging during the investigation.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, this move could be a double-edged sword. First, dismissing numerous ministers could increase instability within the administration. In particular, Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, as the second-in-command of the cabinet, has been responsible for various coordination tasks and government briefings, while Minister Nishimura has been handling issues such as persuading fishermen regarding the Fukushima contaminated water release and semiconductor industry revitalization. Critics argue that these dismissals were made out of fear of political risk, which cannot be ignored.

If the Abe faction strongly opposes these personnel changes, it could lead to internal conflicts. Ultimately, it means the current administration cannot avoid the impact of this scandal. It is reported that Kishida, as the allegations spread, confided to those around him that "this is ultimately a problem for the entire party."

Asahi noted, "The Abe faction has been a symbolic presence in the LDP, producing four prime ministers since 2000," adding, "Prime Minister Kishida has relied heavily on the Abe faction due to his weak factional base. The spread of these allegations directly threatens the Kishida administration, which has depended on the Abe faction as a pillar."