Lee Hae-chan: "For the Democratic Party, the key is whether to secure a simple majority or win 180 seats"

Lee Hae-chan Offers Optimistic Outlook on Next Year's General Election
Jung Cheong-rae Warns Against "Arrogant Remarks" on Optimism

Lee Hae-chan, a senior advisor of the Democratic Party of Korea, predicted about next year's general election, "It does not seem likely that the Democratic Party will lose its position as the largest party in the National Assembly, and the key issue is whether they will secure an outright majority or win around 180 seats like in the last election."

"If we win 70 seats in the metropolitan area, it will be 154 seats"

Lee Hae-chan, Senior Advisor of the Democratic Party

On the 6th, at a talk concert held by the Democratic Party's Sejong City branch, Lee said, "If we win 70 seats in the metropolitan area, it will be 154 seats. Last time, we won 103 seats in the metropolitan area. Even if we win just 50 to 60 seats there, it will be 140 seats, and if we win 70 seats, it will be 154 seats." He continued, "Even if we win only 70 seats in the metropolitan area, there is no need to be pessimistic," expressing optimism.

In the 21st general election, the Democratic Party secured 163 out of 253 constituency seats. The Democratic Party's proportional representation party, the Together Citizens' Party, also won 17 seats, bringing the total to 180 seats.

Lee explained, "In the last election, we won 163 constituencies and about 30 including Honam and Jeju. Although we lost one seat in Namwon, Jeonbuk to an independent candidate, I don't think there will be much change this time either, so we will probably win close to 30 seats."

He added, "There are 66 constituencies in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, and we won 7 of them. Specifically, 1 in Ulsan, 3 in Busan, and 3 in Gyeongnam. It doesn't seem like the number of seats will decrease there, and from the current outlook, it seems likely to increase by even 1 or 2 seats."

He continued, "Chungcheong and Gangwon combined have about 35 constituencies, and we won 22 of them last time. We won 19 in Chungcheong and 3 in Gangwon, and even if we lose some, it would be about 5 seats at most." In fact, in the 21st general election, the Democratic Party secured 23 seats in Chungcheong and Gangwon.

Optimism inside and outside the party... Jung Cheong-rae: "What the people hate the most"

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Jeong Cheong-rae, Supreme Council member. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Besides Lee, optimism about the general election is being expressed both inside and outside the Democratic Party. Senior advisor Jung Dong-young previously said, "If we sweep the metropolitan area, there is no law that says we cannot get 200 seats." Lawmaker Lee Tan-hee and former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk also mentioned the possibility of the 'pan-opposition bloc winning 200 seats.'

However, the party leadership member Jung Cheong-rae warned against election optimism, saying, "The general election is like walking on thin ice, and such remarks are like breaking the ice," and "What the people hate the most is arrogance with heads held high."

Lawmaker Cho Eung-cheon also expressed concern, saying, "'Last time you got 180 seats, and now you say you will get 200? What have you done well, Democratic Party?' If people think like this, it will seem arrogant in the election," adding, "Talking about numbers leaves a lasting impression."

'20-Year Rule Theory' Ends with Regime Change after 5 Years... Could It Become a Liability?

Lee, during his tenure as party leader in 2018, advocated the Democratic Party's '20-year rule theory,' saying, "For policies to take root, it requires not 20 years but an even longer period." However, contrary to his aspirations, the Democratic Party handed over power to the People Power Party after just 5 years.

Concerns have arisen that Lee's '20-year rule theory' combined with election optimism could become a liability. At his memoir publication event last year, he reiterated the '20-year rule theory,' saying, "The reform camp should not just aim for 20 years but, if possible, longer, so that a certain foundation is built."