Judicial Risks, Anti-Lee Jae-myung Sentiment, and Challenging Candidacy... Lee Cornered on All Sides

Leadership of Lee Jae-myung Tested Again Ahead of General Election
Lee Nak-yeon Supports Anti-Lee Jae-myung Voices Within the Party
From Running in Difficult Districts to Possible 'Big Match' with Won Hee-ryong

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, has once again faced a leadership test just over four months ahead of next year's general election. Amid the rekindling of judicial risks following the sentencing of his close aide Kim Yong, former deputy director of the Democratic Research Institute, the resignation declaration of Lee Sang-min, a five-term veteran from the non-Lee faction, and the emergence of former leader Lee Nak-yeon, who raised the 'impossibility of a general election under the Lee Jae-myung system,' are all weighing heavily on Lee. Additionally, the non-Lee faction is demanding that Lee demonstrate sincerity in party reform by even calling for him to run in a difficult electoral district. Lee, now facing a crisis of being surrounded on all sides, is increasingly troubled.

On the 14th, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, arrived at the Seoul Central District Court and is heading to the courtroom to attend the 6th trial regarding the allegations related to Daejang-dong, Wirye, Baekhyeon-dong, and Seongnam FC. Photo by Heo Young-han younghan@

Lee Jae-myung's thrice-weekly trials: "Can we hold the general election like this?" Skepticism arises

According to political circles on the 4th, Lee is expected to attend trials up to three times a week this month. He already appears every Tuesday for a trial on 'violation of the Public Official Election Act' and every other Friday for trials related to the 'Daejang-dong, Wirye New Town, and Seongnam FC illegal donation allegations.' Last month, the court decided to hold a separate hearing on the 'perjury coaching suspicion' case apart from the Daejang-dong trial, adding more trial dates.

For the second week of December, appearances are scheduled for the 11th, 12th, and 15th. Furthermore, with the prosecution launching a forced investigation on the 4th into allegations of illegal use of the Gyeonggi Provincial Government corporate card during Lee's tenure as governor, Lee is expected to have to clear his party duties more frequently.

The Party's Committee Against Prosecutorial Dictatorship and Political Oppression condemned the investigation as a 'public diversion show' to cover up the Busan Expo failure, Kim Geon-hee's Dior bag controversy, and allegations against prosecutor Lee Jeong-seop. However, the prosecution plans to investigate whether Lee was involved in the misuse of the corporate card.

As Lee's court appearances increase, some argue that the general election cannot be conducted under his leadership. Former People Power Party emergency committee chairman Kim Jong-in said, "Lee Jae-myung himself must make a judgment about his position," adding, "As a leader, he must coldly assess whether he can efficiently lead the party in this position and whether he can achieve victory in next year's general election."

Lee Sang-min's resignation and the emergence of presidential contender Lee Nak-yeon

Among those continuing to pressure Lee's position, the most notable is former leader Lee Nak-yeon, who was his rival in the presidential primary. On the 30th of last month, Lee Nak-yeon directly criticized on SBS Radio, saying, "He goes to court several days a week; naturally, there is concern about whether the general election can be held under these circumstances." Since then, he has expanded his activities by targeting Lee's judicial risks in media interviews.

Lee Nak-yeon, the General Election Committee Chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea, is delivering a keynote speech at the National Vision and National Integration Committee Peace Vision Meeting held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building on the 9th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Recently, Lee Sang-min, who criticized the 'Lee Jae-myung system' and resigned from the party, also poses a burden to the leadership. However, if Lee Sang-min's resignation ends as an 'individual deviation' rather than a 'domino defection,' former leader Lee Nak-yeon is noteworthy for potentially consolidating the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' voices within the party.

Especially as opposition from the non-Lee faction grows over nomination rules and the electoral system, Lee Nak-yeon could become the focal point of the anti-Lee Jae-myung forces. While Lee Jae-myung hinted at a return to a parallel proportional representation system, saying, "What use is it to lose stylishly?" Lee Nak-yeon directly countered, "When making decisions that contradict the values we aim for, we need to consider whether victory is possible." There is even talk of a coalition front with former Prime Ministers Kim Boo-kyum and Chung Sye-kyun. They share common ground in their negative views on the pro-Lee-centered party management, the return to the parallel system, and the reduction of the delegate system.

Son Hak-gyu, senior advisor at the East Asia Future Foundation, also held a press conference that day, criticizing Lee for hinting at a return to the parallel system as a "desperate retreat that deepens political confrontation." He also said, "The Democratic Party must take responsibility for the entire party being entangled in judicial risk," indirectly criticizing the current leadership. The actions of the 'Principles and Common Sense' group, composed of four non-Lee faction lawmakers, are also drawing attention. They plan to officially demand specific reform measures, such as eradicating fandom politics, from Lee by mid-month and decide on their positions after reviewing his response.

'Gambler Lee Jae-myung,' will he break through by running in a difficult district?

Under pressure both inside and outside the party, attention is focused on what decisive move Lee will make to lead the party stably until next year's general election. The first card is 'running in a difficult district.' The non-Lee faction argues that Lee must show sacrifice first for senior party members to follow, demanding that he run in his hometown of Andong, Gyeongbuk. However, it is widely believed that he is unlikely to accept this. A pro-Lee first-term lawmaker said, "Telling him to run in Andong is like telling him not to do politics," and flatly dismissed the possibility. Moreover, with Lee's firm control over the party and his core supporters not wanting him to run in a difficult district, there is even less reason to do so. Running in a difficult district only makes sense when Lee is a dominant figure in a specific area, but since he is a 'generation leader' supported by people in their 30s to 50s, running in a difficult district is not considered a viable answer.

Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong is greeting members of the National Assembly ahead of the 2024 budget address held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on the 31st. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Some speculate that Lee might run as a proportional representative to reduce attrition. The plan would be to lead the general election while managing judicial risks and his own constituency, which is realistically difficult, by securing re-election through proportional representation. However, considering Lee's past moves that showed a gambler's spirit, it is expected that he will run in a constituency. Especially, there are speculations that Won Hee-ryong, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, known as the 'Daejang-dong one-shot instructor' in the ruling party, might run in Gyeyang-e, which could make Lee appear to avoid a 'big match' if he runs as a proportional representative.

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "If former Minister Won runs in Gyeyang-e, Lee is more likely to face him head-on and try to turn the tide," adding, "However, as the general election approaches, depending on changes in prospects and the possibility of defections and expanded opposition from the non-Lee faction, whether Lee will run as a proportional representative may change."