Japan's Kishida Falls to 6th Place in Polls, Even Behind 'Punkoolsekjwa'

Kishida Struggles with Historic Low Approval Ratings
Possibility of Uncertain Reelection in General Election

As the approval ratings of the Kishida administration in Japan continue to struggle day by day, a public opinion poll asking about the suitability for the next LDP president showed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida dropping to 6th place. Instead, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, known as the 'punkulsek left,' ranked high, deepening the concerns of Prime Minister Kishida, who was aiming for re-election.

According to a poll conducted by Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) and TV Tokyo from the 24th to the 26th, in response to the question "Who is suitable as the next LDP president?", former Secretary-General Ishiba ranked first with 16%, and former Environment Minister Koizumi came in second with 15%. Following them were Digital Minister Taro Kono (13%), Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi (9%), and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (5%). Incumbent Prime Minister Kishida recorded 4%, placing 6th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

When narrowing the target to only LDP supporters, Digital Minister Kono ranked first, with former Environment Minister Koizumi, former Secretary-General Ishiba, and Prime Minister Kishida tied for second place, with Kishida ranking 5th.

In Japan's parliamentary system, the ruling party's president generally becomes the prime minister, so this poll effectively reflects the suitability for the next prime minister. This means that Prime Minister Kishida's chances of re-election are becoming increasingly uncertain.

This trend was similarly observed in other polls conducted earlier. In a nationwide poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun on the 18th and 19th, in response to the question "Who is suitable as prime minister?", former Environment Minister Koizumi ranked first with 16%, and former Secretary-General Ishiba came in second with 15%. However, Asahi cautioned against overinterpretation, stating, "Since the second Abe administration, former Environment Minister Koizumi and former Secretary-General Ishiba have consistently ranked in the 'top 3' for next prime minister, but their influence does not feel as strong as before."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, within political circles, there appears to be growing talk of ousting the prime minister. The prevailing analysis is that the reason these figures have high approval ratings is because they are distancing themselves from Prime Minister Kishida.

They have even begun warming up for the race. Former Secretary-General Ishiba said in a lecture held in Tokyo on the 22nd, when asked if he intended to run in the LDP presidential election next September, "It would be a lie to say no," adding, "It depends on the situation."

He also stated, "Having a vision of how you want to run the country as prime minister is the quality of a member of the Diet," showing that he does not deny the possibility of running.

Former Environment Minister Koizumi launched a bipartisan parliamentary group called the 'Ride Share Study Group' on the 22nd. The group aims to reform ride-sharing regulations to address the shortage of taxi drivers. Media reports indicated that former Prime Minister Suga, who is distancing himself from Prime Minister Kishida, is supporting this effort behind the scenes.

Economic Security Minister Takaichi has also recently formed a study group centered around herself. However, this move has been interpreted as a direct challenge to the prime minister by a sitting minister, drawing criticism even within the LDP.

Meanwhile, the Kishida administration's approval ratings have failed to find a breakthrough. Public opinion has turned due to tax increases for strengthening defense capabilities, and now allegations have surfaced that prominent LDP figures, including Prime Minister Kishida, violated political funding laws.

As a result, in this Nikkei poll, the approval rating for the Kishida cabinet fell 3 percentage points to 30% compared to the previous survey. This is the lowest level since the Kishida administration took office, according to Nikkei's survey standards.