Has the 'Sesupunk' Bottomed Out?... Forecasted Decrease Around 1 Trillion Won Rather Than the 'Revised Estimate of 59 Trillion Won'

The trend of tax revenue shortfall has hit bottom and shows signs of some improvement.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance on the 26th, this year's tax revenue shortfall is expected to be about 5.8 trillion won less than the existing revenue budget forecast (400.5 trillion won).

This is about 1 trillion won smaller than the tax revenue shortfall (59.1 trillion won) announced in the mid-September tax revenue re-estimate. Compared to the judgment at the time of the tax revenue re-estimate, about 1 trillion won more tax revenue is coming in.

From January to September this year, national tax revenue was 266.6 trillion won, down 50.9 trillion won (16.0%) compared to the same period last year. Based on this year's revenue budget (400.5 trillion won), it was calculated to be short by 55.6 trillion won.

Based on the '59 trillion won tax revenue shortfall,' about 3.5 trillion won less is expected to be collected over the three months from October to December.

Above all, this trend is noteworthy as it is directly linked to next year's tax revenue. Signs of recovery in the performance of export companies, centered on semiconductors, are a 'plus' factor for related tax revenues such as corporate tax. However, real estate-related tax items, where risk factors are scattered, are considered a downside risk to tax revenue.

Earlier, the National Assembly Budget Office forecasted next year's national tax revenue at 361.4 trillion won in its report "2024 and Medium-Term National Tax Revenue Outlook" last month. This is 6 trillion won less than the government's forecast of 367.4 trillion won for next year.