Private Research Institute Predicts "8 Consecutive Years of Decline"
Number of Births and Marriages from January to September Decreases Compared to Last Year
In Japan, which is experiencing population decline and aging, the number of births this year is expected to decrease for the eighth consecutive year, reaching a record low.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) on the 25th, the Japan Research Institute, a private research organization, projected that based on population dynamics statistics since January, the number of births this year will be 729,000, a 5.5% decrease from last year.
The number of births in Japan increased by about 2,000 compared to the previous year in 2015 but has been steadily declining since then, falling below 700,000 for the first time last year. If the projection holds, the number of births will have decreased for eight consecutive years, setting a new historical low.
The total fertility rate, which is the expected number of children a Japanese woman will have in her lifetime, was 1.26 last year, and it is also expected to decline further this year.
Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced yesterday that the number of births, including foreign nationals, from January to September this year was 569,656, a 5.0% decrease compared to the same period last year. During the same period, the number of marriages decreased by 4.4% to 365,478 compared to last year.
Nikkei explained, "The reduction in opportunities for men and women to meet due to COVID-19, along with continued economic stagnation, appears to have affected the lack of motivation to have and raise children."
Meanwhile, the low birthrate phenomenon in Japan is progressing faster than expected, increasing the social security burden on the younger generation.
According to data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the average annual health insurance premium paid by those aged 35 to 39 surged from 205,000 yen (approximately 1.79 million KRW) in 2000 to 308,000 yen (approximately 2.69 million KRW) in 2020. Additionally, the annual health insurance premium paid by those aged 75 to 79 increased from 74,000 yen (approximately 650,000 KRW) in 2000 to 85,000 yen (approximately 740,000 KRW) in 2020.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s low birthrate problem is more severe than Japan’s. South Korea’s total fertility rate was 0.78 last year, the lowest among OECD countries.
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