North Korea to Completely Replace Aging Weapons... Will They Provoke with 'New Model Unmanned Aerial Vehicles'?

Deployment of Three Types of Short-Range Missiles for Southern Strike and Others at the Frontline

North Korea has emphasized that it will forward-deploy new military equipment in the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) area, raising the possibility of a full replacement of outdated weapons and provocations. In particular, there are concerns that the new reconnaissance and attack drones, first unveiled by North Korea in July this year, could carry out missions over the MDL area, potentially leading to a recurrence of the incident earlier this year when a North Korean drone penetrated the heart of Seoul.

According to military experts on the 24th, North Korea may deploy a set of three short-range strike missiles known as the ‘North Korean version of Iskander’ (KN-23), ‘North Korean version of ATACMS’ (KN-24), and ‘super-large multiple rocket launcher’ (KN-25) within several tens of kilometers north of the armistice line to conduct a show of force.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

There is also a possibility that these missiles could be launched toward the sea after being deployed in the forward areas. The term ‘multiple rocket launcher’ refers to North Korea’s version of a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), which is equipped with guidance capabilities to the target as a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). It is presumed to be capable of carrying not only conventional warheads but also tactical nuclear warheads. With a maximum range of up to 400 km, it can reach the Seoul metropolitan area, as well as U.S. military bases in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province; Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province; and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) base in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province.

North Korea may also deploy the ‘North Korean version of the Stryker armored vehicle’ and new tanks, first revealed at the October 2020 military parade, to the front lines. The North Korean Stryker armored vehicle resembles the U.S. Army’s Stryker and is equipped with ‘4 axles and 8 wheels.’ The new tank is equipped with a 115 mm tank gun and the anti-tank missile ‘Bulsse.’ It is analyzed to be a completely different new tank from the former Soviet T-52/55 and T-62 tanks, which were replicated as the Cheonmaho, Pokpungho, and Seongunho tanks. There is also a possibility of deploying the new tanks to the Kaesong Industrial Complex. After the closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex in February 2016, following the fourth nuclear test on January 6 and successive missile launches by North Korea, the North began a large-scale redeployment of units near the complex. From North Korea’s perspective, the Kaesong Industrial Complex could be used as a military strategic point in the event of a military confrontation.

North Korea’s new reconnaissance and attack drones, first showcased at the armed equipment exhibition in July this year, may also carry out missions over the MDL area. North Korea’s drones are designed to resemble the U.S. Air Force’s RQ-4 ‘Global Hawk’ and MQ-9 ‘Reaper’ drones. After Chairman Kim Jong-un’s directive in January 2021 to complete the development of unmanned reconnaissance and strike equipment capable of precise reconnaissance up to 500 km deep by 2025, development speed has accelerated.

The drones differ in altitude and speed from the drone that crashed in a mountain area in the front lines of Gangwon Province in July 2017 and the small drone found on Baengnyeong Island in March 2014, posing a new threat. Judging from the photos released when North Korea unveiled the new reconnaissance and attack drones, it appears that the aircraft can carry 10 bombs under its body, and North Korea may threaten by releasing photos of flights over the MDL airspace.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, “North Korea has deployed about 70% of its army forces south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line, maintaining readiness to launch surprise attacks at any time. It is expected to reinforce firepower with new multiple rocket launchers and replace old tanks with new tanks.”