Next Year’s Seoul Apartment Move-in Volume at Record Low
Experts Say “Result of Moon Jae-in Administration’s Real Estate Policy”
The number of apartment units scheduled for occupancy in Seoul next year is expected to be around 10,000, the lowest since related statistics began to be compiled. As a result, competition in the subscription market is likely to intensify further.
According to nationwide occupancy (planned) volume statistics compiled by Real Estate R114 as of the previous day on the 11th, the number of units to be occupied in Seoul next year is expected to be 10,921.
This is the lowest level since Real Estate R114 started compiling related statistics in 2000. It is about half the number of units in 2011 (20,336 units), which had the lowest occupancy volume in the past, and only about one-third of this year’s (32,795 units).
However, there is also a forecast that about 1,300 to 1,400 units may be post-sold next year. If post-sale occurs as expected, the supply volume in Seoul next year will be about 12,000 units.
Experts consider that, given it usually takes about three years from apartment pre-sale to occupancy, the decrease in occupancy volume is a result of the Moon Jae-in administration’s real estate policies. When housing prices surged at the time, the Moon administration implemented various reconstruction and redevelopment regulations, which particularly dealt a direct blow to apartment supply in Seoul.
Industry insiders pointed out that the decrease in occupancy volume could eventually lead to overheating in the subscription market. The average competition rate for first-priority subscriptions for Seoul apartments from January to September (66.35 to 1) greatly exceeded that of the same period last year (26.05 to 1), which is also attributed to this effect.
Real Estate R114 stated, “Seoul has the highest number of people wanting housing nationwide but also the most insufficient housing supply,” adding, “When supply is low, it naturally leads to a concentration of demand.”
They further predicted, “A significant number of people are expected to flock to the ‘Hillstate e-Pyeonhansesang Munjeong’ apartment in Munjeong-dong, Songpa, Seoul, which is about to open for subscription.”
Meanwhile, with occupancy volumes also decreasing in Gyeonggi Province (110,843 units) and Incheon (25,516 units), the total volume in the metropolitan area next year is expected to be 147,280 units. This is the first time since 2016 that metropolitan area occupancy volume has fallen below 150,000 units.
On the other hand, nationwide, the volume next year is expected to be similar to 2022 (332,863 units) and this year (367,682 units). Outside the metropolitan area, 180,774 units are expected to be occupied next year, bringing the nationwide occupancy volume to 328,054 units.
However, in 2025, the year after next, nationwide occupancy volume is expected to decrease by about 120,000 units compared to this year, to 241,456 units.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
