[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North and South Korea, Reconnaissance Satellite Tensions... Who Will Succeed in Launching First?

North May Launch Missile Around Missile Industry Day on 18th
Our Military Announces Launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite No.1 on 30th This Month

From this month, the North and South will begin a reconnaissance satellite launch competition. North Korea, having designated November 18 as Missile Industry Day, is expected to proceed with the third reconnaissance satellite launch, which was declared to take place last month, while our military has also announced the launch of the first military reconnaissance satellite as part of the '425 Project.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea designated November 18 as Missile Industry Day at the Standing Committee meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly. Analysts suggest that the third reconnaissance satellite launch, initially promised for last month, could be launched around this date.

On November 18 last year, North Korea launched the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-17 over the East Sea. At that time, the Hwasong-17 was detected flying approximately 1,000 km with an altitude of about 6,100 km and a speed of around Mach 22. It was assessed that if it had not been a high-angle launch, it could have put the entire U.S. mainland within range. North Korea announced that the Hwasong-17 reached a maximum altitude of 6,049 km and flew 999.2 km over 4,145 seconds.

On the 6th, the Workers' Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun published an editorial titled "The Great Power Leading Korea," written by editorial writer Dong Taegwan, stating, "With the power of the Korean Workers' Party's revolutionary industry, the country's nuclear forces have rapidly risen and firmly reached the status of the world's strongest." It also listed provocations and events since early this year, including the test launch of the super-large multiple rocket launcher, test launches of the Hwasong series ICBMs, the unveiling of tactical nuclear attack submarines, and the North Korea-Russia summit.

The establishment of Missile Industry Day by North Korea is interpreted as an intention to dispel domestic and international doubts surrounding the delayed third military reconnaissance satellite test launch, originally scheduled for October, and to continue nuclear and missile development. If North Korea launches the satellite, it is expected to notify international organizations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) of the launch plan.

According to nighttime satellite images from NASA, lights were observed around the West Sea Satellite Launching Station on the 19th, 21st, and 26th of last month. Nighttime lighting detected by satellites in North Korea is usually limited to Pyongyang or some border areas between North Korea and China, making such unusual nighttime lighting easily identifiable.

Earlier, on the 3rd, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik met with reporters from the Ministry of National Defense and announced that the first military reconnaissance satellite, part of the '425 Project,' is scheduled to be launched at the end of this month from the U.S. Vandenberg Air Force Base using a Falcon 9 rocket. The 425 Project is a military-exclusive reconnaissance satellite acquisition project aimed at monitoring and responding to North Korea's major strategic targets, consisting of satellites equipped with high-performance synthetic aperture radar (SAR) capable of observation even in cloudy weather, as well as satellites equipped with electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) surveillance equipment.

The first reconnaissance satellite can identify objects as small as 30 cm on the ground from an altitude of several hundred kilometers. In addition to the first satellite, the military plans to launch four more SAR satellites by 2025 to observe North Korea's nuclear and missile bases in real-time every two hours.

Minister Shin emphasized, "Although North Korea has repeatedly failed in reconnaissance satellite launches, our military reconnaissance satellite will demonstrate excellent scientific and technological capabilities."