[General Election Battleground]② Nowon-byeong Without Lee Jun-seok?… Progressive 'Arena of Competition'

Former People Power Party Leader Lee Jun-seok, Attempting Fourth Run?
Incumbent Democratic Party Lawmaker Kim Seong-hwan, a Factor in the Race
Justice Party and Progressive Party Also Preparing to Enter

"As the election (next year's general election) approaches, they are trying to get even one more vote. Why not just make the entire country Seoul?"

Kang (79), who was resting on a bench near Danghyeoncheon in Sanggye 2-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul, spoke disapprovingly. Lee (81), who was selling goods at a stall nearby, strongly agreed when he raised his voice against the People Power Party's 'Mega Seoul' plan to incorporate Gimpo City into Seoul. Lee said, "When Seoul gave out disaster relief funds of 100,000 won during COVID-19, Gyeonggi Province gave 300,000 to 400,000 won," adding, "Gyeonggi Province is doing so well, so why incorporate Gimpo into Seoul?"

Residents met in Sanggye-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul, on the 2nd expressed discomfort over the ruling party's push to incorporate Gimpo City into Seoul ahead of next year's general election. Nowon-byeong, the National Assembly constituency including Sanggye-dong, is a representative stronghold of progressive forces. The incumbent lawmaker is Kim Seong-hwan, a two-term member of the Democratic Party of Korea, and this is the same constituency where Roh Hoe-chan was re-elected as a member of the Unified Progressive Party.

However, since former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok has challenged this district three times in a row (including by-elections) since the 20th general election, it is receiving intense attention ahead of next year's election.

Lee Jun-seok's 4th Challenge vs New Party Formation

Nowon-gu is currently classified as an opposition stronghold, with all incumbent lawmakers in the Gap, Eul, and Byeong districts belonging to the Democratic Party, and the district mayor also from the Democratic Party. However, former leader Lee has been cultivating support in Nowon-byeong since the 20th general election, gradually increasing conservative support. Although Lee lost in the 21st general election, he recorded a support rate of 44.36%, the highest ever for a conservative party candidate in Nowon-byeong. This is even higher than the 43.10% vote share of Hong Jung-wook, a conservative lawmaker from the then Grand National Party who was the only conservative to win in this district during the 18th general election.

The 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election results also revealed subtle shifts in public sentiment. In Nowon-byeong, then People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon's vote share was 54.71%, significantly ahead of Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun's 41.54%. In the 2022 presidential election, Democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung received more votes than President Yoon, but the margin was a narrow 1.06 percentage points.

Local residents' evaluations of former leader Lee were also favorable. Kim (63), who runs a real estate business, said, "This area has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold, but recently the ruling party seems to be catching up." He added, "Lee Jun-seok is a very smart person, but he chose the wrong party." The 2030 generation's favorable view of the young politician Lee was notable. Hong (22), a university student nearby, said, "Since Lee is a relatively young candidate, he probably understands youth issues well," and added, "If Lee runs, I will vote for him." On the other hand, Jo (65), who has run a small business in Sanggye-dong for 20 years, said, "I am from Okcheon, so I like former President Park Geun-hye," and added, "Lee Jun-seok used to be popular among middle-aged women, but recently he has been criticized for speaking carelessly."

However, Lee's candidacy in this district is uncertain as he recently began actively forming a new party. On the 5th, on his YouTube channel 'Yeouido Reconstruction Association,' Lee hinted at forming a new party, saying, "If there is no change in the party by the end of December, it is natural to seek another path," and it is known that he has been in contact with non-Lee Jae-myung factions within the Democratic Party and progressive figures. A representative from Lee's side said, "Since Lee was under suspension of party membership, he could not engage in official activities, but he meets local people on his way to and from work," and when asked about future local activities, they drew a line, saying, "There are none."

Who Will Run from the Progressive Camp?

Among opposition figures mentioned as potential candidates for Nowon-byeong in next year's general election are incumbent lawmaker Kim, Justice Party lawmaker Lee Eun-joo, and Hong Ki-woong, chairman of the Progressive Party's Nowon-byeong branch. Since former leader Lee Jun-seok was suspended from party membership last year, the People Power Party has left the Nowon-byeong branch chair position vacant.

Kim Seong-hwan was not born or raised in Nowon but has spent most of his political career there. Starting as a Nowon district council member in the first elected term, he served as a Seoul city council member representing Nowon, and was twice the mayor of Nowon-gu. Recently, Kim has been increasing his engagement with residents by attending various local festivals and events in Nowon-gu daily.

Before entering politics, Justice Party lawmaker Lee Eun-joo worked as a subway station attendant at Dangogae Station and Sanggye Station, both in the current Nowon-byeong district. Since 2021, Lee has established an office in Nowon and has been active locally. A staff member from her office explained, "Even during the National Assembly audit period, she attended local meetings and events on Fridays and weekends," adding, "Since it is not the official campaign period, these are party member gatherings, etc."

Hong Ki-woong, a candidate from the Progressive Party, has been rooted in Nowon since his days at Seoul National University of Science and Technology located in Nowon-gu. Hong has continued the Progressive Party's core strategy of 'volunteer activity election campaigns.' Kang Sung-hee, a Progressive Party lawmaker who entered the National Assembly through a by-election this year, received positive responses from residents by having all party members go to Jeonju before the election to pick up trash and do volunteer work. Hong said, "Last week's volunteer event was attended by ordinary residents, not just party members," adding, "Usually politicians approach residents first, but when doing volunteer work, residents approach and talk to us first."

Some view the merging of Nowon electoral districts as the biggest variable in next year's general election. Due to population decline in Nowon, the three districts Gap, Eul, and Byeong may be consolidated into two. Since all three currently have Democratic Party lawmakers, if the districts merge, the Democratic primary competition will intensify, potentially allowing other parties to win by default.