"No Improvement in Climate Policy Could Lead to 20% Global GDP Decline by 2050"

WMO "3.6 Trillion USD Economic Losses from Weather Disasters Since 1970"
"55% of Global GDP Depends on Nature"

If the current climate policies are maintained, the global average GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is projected to decrease by about 20% by 2050.

On the 29th, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) announced this in its report titled "Recent International Community Responses to Climate Anomalies and Implications."

Climate change caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions is identified as one of the factors increasing the frequency of climate anomalies such as prolonged heatwaves, drought days, wildfire risks, and heavy rainfall.

The report cites data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in August, explaining, "The number of climate anomaly events has increased more than sixfold over the past 50 years, and it is estimated that since 1970, these anomalies have caused approximately 3.6 trillion dollars in economic losses."

These losses have been more significant in developing countries than in advanced economies. The report states, "Although most economic losses occurred in developed countries, no disaster exceeded 3.5% of the GDP of advanced economies. In contrast, 7% of disasters in the least developed countries and 20% of disasters in small island developing states resulted in economic losses exceeding 5% of their GDP."

Economic losses due to climate anomalies are inevitable without groundbreaking improvements in climate policies.

According to the institute, the nonprofit organization Christian Aid stated in data released last September, "If current climate policies are maintained, the global average GDP is expected to decline by -19.6% by 2050 and -63.9% by 2100 compared to 2021 levels. Even if countries maintain global temperature rise at 1.5℃ based on the Paris Agreement, vulnerable countries to climate change are expected to see an average GDP decrease of -13.1% by 2050 and -33.1% by 2100."

The report notes that the international community recognizes biodiversity loss, climate anomalies, and failures in climate change response as major risks, emphasizing the importance of natural functions and biodiversity. It explains, "Although 55% of global GDP depends on nature, damage to nature and biodiversity loss caused by climate change and pollution are becoming risk factors for business activities. The World Economic Forum (WEF) identifies natural disasters and ecosystem loss as one of the critical risks in the next decade, and there is a forecast that by 2030, ecosystem loss could reduce global GDP by 2.7 trillion dollars."

Accordingly, it is suggested that South Korea also needs to prepare for the increasing demand for climate change adaptation support from the international community. The report explains, "While emergency response, disaster prevention, reconstruction, and rehabilitation support directly related to climate anomalies are important, fundamentally, support for risk management and climate change adaptation in terms of economic and social infrastructure is necessary."