Kishida Loses One Seat in By-Election... Rising Calls for Regime Judgment

'Certain Two-Seat Sweep' By-Election... Actually Losing One Seat to the Opposition
Historic Low Approval Rating... Re-Election Scenario in the Fog

In Japan, in the by-election held the previous day for two parliamentary seats, both the ruling and opposition parties each secured one seat. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) aimed for a 'clean sweep of both seats' but ended up losing one seat to the opposition, and with the recent cabinet approval ratings hitting historic lows, there is an analysis that calls for a judgment on the administration have emerged.

On the 23rd, Asahi Shimbun reported that in the Tokushima-Kochi electoral district, where the House of Councillors by-election was held the previous day, independent candidate Hirota Hajime defeated LDP candidate Nishiuchi Ken and was elected.

Hirota Hajime, the candidate elected in Tokushima and Kochi, is announcing his victory speech. (Photo by NHK)

In Tokushima-Kochi, the election was held after the LDP lawmaker resigned in June due to assaulting a secretary. Because of this, public opinion against the LDP was unfavorable from the beginning of the election. Even when Prime Minister Kishida came to support the campaign and appealed for price stabilization measures, citizens mocked him with the nickname "tax increase glasses," linking his tax increase stance with his appearance, which was reported in the media.

Meanwhile, Hirota, the challenger, has a background of serving as a member of the Diet for 16 years with the Constitutional Democratic Party. With high recognition and running as an independent without the opposition party title, he was able to attract conservative votes that traditionally supported the LDP.

Initially, the LDP expected to win both districts, but as the election atmosphere turned unfavorable, it is known that they lowered their goal to 'one win, one loss.'

The situation is not entirely bright even in Nagasaki's 4th district, where the seat was retained. Political newcomer Kaneko Yozo, the LDP candidate, succeeded in securing the seat by defeating Suetsugu Seiichi of the Constitutional Democratic Party, but controversy arose over hereditary politics since his father was a former governor of Nagasaki Prefecture and he served as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in the Kishida Cabinet.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This could pose a risk to Prime Minister Kishida, who was seeking an opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives for a second term. The ideal scenario the Kishida administration aimed for was to win this by-election and smoothly proceed to re-election. However, Asahi pointed out, "The election results reflect the public's opinion on the administration," adding, "It is uncertain whether the House of Representatives will be dissolved within this year or even early next year." The election had a strong character of judgment on the administration.

Moreover, with the Kishida Cabinet's approval ratings recently plummeting, it is difficult to gain momentum to push forward any future countermeasures. In a public opinion poll conducted by Asahi on the 14th and 15th, the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating recorded a historic low of 29%.

Some pointed out that the request on the 13th to order the dissolution of the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (formerly the Unification Church) to overcome the unfavorable election situation was likely perceived by the public as an attempt to 'raise approval ratings.'

Asahi analyzed, "This reflects a strict public opinion against the administration, which may weaken Prime Minister Kishida's central leadership," and "It will become difficult for the Prime Minister to lead government operations."