Kishida's Approval Rating Hits Lowest Since Cabinet Inauguration... Dissolution of the House of Representatives Unlikely Within the Year

Kishida's Approval Rating Falls Below 30%
Lowest Since Inauguration in 2021
Fails to Rebound Despite Cabinet Reshuffle

Fumio Kishida's approval rating as Japan's Prime Minister has hit its lowest point since the administration took office, raising prospects that dissolving the House of Representatives within the year may be difficult. Despite a major cabinet reshuffle last month aimed at revitalizing his image, the approval rating has yet to show signs of recovery. However, some political circles speculate that with only about a year left in the party president's term, a tense development could unfold around a year-end dissolution following the budget approval.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
Photo by Yonhap News

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun from the 14th to 15th among 1,064 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating stood at 29%, down 8 percentage points from 37% the previous month. This marks the lowest level since the Kishida Cabinet was inaugurated in October 2021. The previous lowest record was 31% in December last year.

In the case of Mainichi, the cabinet approval rating was 25%, remaining below 30% for four consecutive months. Support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) stood at 23%. Other polls this month by Yomiuri (34%), Kyodo News (32.2%), and Jiji Press (26.3%) also recorded the lowest approval ratings since the cabinet's inception.

The decline in approval ratings for the Kishida Cabinet, now in its third year, is attributed primarily to rising prices. Japan's consumer price index (CPI) for August rose 3.1% year-on-year, marking over 12 consecutive months of inflation exceeding 3%.

Despite the cabinet reshuffle last month, the approval rating continues to decline, leading to speculation within the party that Prime Minister Kishida may find it difficult to dissolve the House of Representatives within the year. Previously, political scenarios suggested that Kishida might seek to rebound his approval rating through new economic policies before dissolving the House within the year. However, the sharp drop in approval ratings has cast doubt on the prime minister's ability to secure re-election.

Currently, the combined approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet and the LDP stands at 48%, according to the Mainichi survey. In Japanese politics, the Aoki Rule is often cited as an indicator of a cabinet's lifespan. This theory holds that if the combined approval rating of the cabinet and ruling party falls below 50%, maintaining the administration becomes untenable, which applies to the Kishida Cabinet. Nihon Keizai Shimbun explained, "If the cabinet's approval rating continues to decline as the general election approaches, demands for replacing the party president may intensify."

There are also concerns that time is running short for the passage of the supplementary budget reflecting the Kishida Cabinet's new economic policies. Nihon Keizai Shimbun predicts the supplementary budget bill will be submitted to the Diet around the 20th of next month, with passage expected only by late November or early December. If the House of Representatives is dissolved before the supplementary budget is finalized, it is unlikely that Prime Minister Kishida will achieve a rebound in approval ratings, according to political observers. The Kishida Cabinet faces a tight schedule to aim for a year-end dissolution after budget approval.

However, some speculate that a dissolution within the year may be inevitable. With about a year left in the ruling LDP president's term and the House of Representatives' term reaching its midpoint at the end of this month, postponing dissolution further may be difficult. Moreover, since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet also dissolved the House of Representatives on November 21, 2014, there is a view that if the plan is pursued, it could be feasible.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun stated, "If dissolution is chosen next year, options include dissolving after budget approval, immediately after the regular Diet session convenes, or just before the September party presidential election. It is also true that the options available to Prime Minister Kishida for dissolution are gradually diminishing."