Highlights
Q. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States
Shin Ji-eun: We have looked at the figure of bin Salman and his various policies over parts 1 and 2, and now it seems time to examine his foreign policy. One of the hot issues recently is Saudi Arabia caught between the US and China. Was it last year? Biden visited Saudi Arabia, and bin Salman Crown Prince met him with a smile, but while Biden asked for increased oil production, Saudi Arabia actually cut production. There were talks about the US feeling betrayed. Saudi Arabia and the US relationship is somewhat strained, right? I'm curious why the relationship is so bad these days and why Saudi Arabia seems to be trying to distance itself from the US.
AlphaGo: First of all, it's better to see it as a strained relationship between the Democratic administration and Saudi Arabia, rather than between the US and Saudi Arabia in general. Because before Biden, the relationship with Trump was very good and smooth. The reason is that the son of the former Interior Minister, who was Mohammed bin Salman's predecessor as Crown Prince, was somewhat recognized by the Democratic side and had played a significant role during the 9/11 terror attacks. The US originally had some interest in that person.
Shin Ji-eun: They wanted this person to become Crown Prince.
AlphaGo: Yes, because as a former intelligence chief, he had good relations with people in the US. But when he was ousted, the line in the US connected to him deteriorated. However, Trump was in office then, and his relationship with Mohammed bin Salman was very good, which led to a significant development in US-Saudi relations. That period might have been the best time for US-Saudi relations. To some extent, Saudi media even published articles saying, ‘The whole world is currently dominated by the Saudi-US alliance.’
But then what happened? Biden, being a Democrat, placed some importance on human rights. Journalists close to the Democratic Party attacked Trump, saying, ‘Trump is a very strange politician. There are blatant journalist assassination cases, and he says nothing. Not a word. What kind of US president is this? He should say something at least.’ These Democratic-leaning journalists used this to attack Trump. Biden needed to gain recognition, so he had to throw back the attacks on Trump to gain support. One of those was, ‘If I get elected, I will ignore Mohammed bin Salman,’ ‘I won’t play with him.’ Biden got elected. Normally, when a president is elected, they contact heads of state, but Biden did not call Mohammed bin Salman; instead, he spoke with bin Salman's father. This made Mohammed bin Salman somewhat angry because, although his father is the official head of state, bin Salman effectively runs the country, and his father is more like a symbolic figure, somewhat like Queen Elizabeth II of the UK.
Shin Ji-eun: So he is a symbolic figure.
AlphaGo: But I want to clarify that the oil production cuts and increases are unrelated to this.
Shin Ji-eun: They are unrelated?
AlphaGo: Yes, because under Mohammed bin Salman, relations with Russia worsened over production cuts and increases. Russia said, ‘Let’s not increase production; let’s cut production.’ But Mohammed bin Salman said, ‘No, I need money now,’ ‘There might be an economic crisis,’ ‘I need to sell more oil quickly and attract money.’ Russia said, ‘If you increase production, oil prices will fall, which is bad for us.’ Bin Salman’s stance was, ‘That’s your problem, not mine.’ So they clashed?Putin and Mohammed bin Salman. Who reconciled them? Trump did. That’s when OPEC became OPEC PLUS. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, ‘We have been affected because of you,’ ‘We planned and designed our economy accordingly,’ ‘Now that your relations with Russia have worsened, you want us to do something again? Are we your lackeys?’
Shin Ji-eun: That makes sense.
AlphaGo: So the production cuts were not retaliatory but already planned.
Shin Ji-eun: So the cuts were pre-planned, and there was no personal grudge against Biden. Let’s talk more about foreign policy. Recently, the international news dominating the world is the Ukraine-Russia war, which is still ongoing. Recently, a secret peace meeting to ‘end the Ukraine war’ was held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, right? China attended, and there is analysis that Saudi Arabia influenced this. Saudi Arabia unofficially hosted it without siding with Ukraine and was also mindful of Russia. Is this a kind of balancing foreign policy?
Q. How do you evaluate bin Salman’s foreign policy?
AlphaGo: It’s not balancing but a very unique and unilateral foreign policy. Saudi Arabia doesn’t care about anyone else and tries to expand its scope of activity by instilling the perception that ‘Saudi Arabia is now an international actor.’ So I think the Ukraine peace summit could be somewhat helpful. But I’m not sure because Russia’s absence is a bit of a blow.
Shin Ji-eun: Anyway, from bin Salman’s perspective, as you said, Saudi Arabia is not just siding with the US; it can view the world from its own perspective, showing its presence, and by playing the role of mediator in the war, it has strengthened its influence. From China’s point of view, Saudi Arabia’s ‘Hey! Wow~’ approach might have created a somewhat positive image.
AlphaGo: Saudi Arabia has been testing this: ‘If you want to poke us and befriend us, come here,’ ‘Russia won’t come.’
Shin Ji-eun: At least you come.
AlphaGo: ‘If you don’t come, this will become a completely pro-American meeting,’ ‘You should come to show this is a somewhat balanced meeting,’ ‘If you don’t come, it means you were just testing the waters.’
Shin Ji-eun: So it’s testing the waters? Foreign policy is quite smart, isn’t it?
Q. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
Shin Ji-eun: And there is the United Arab Emirates. When you think of the Middle East, if you say Saudi Arabia or the UAE, what comes to mind? What do you think?
AlphaGo: Most people think of Dubai. They take Emirates Airlines to Spain; they don’t go to the Middle East! They take Emirates Airlines to Spain or Portugal.
Shin Ji-eun: So I also heard Emirates Airlines is very good, and when I thought of the Middle East, I thought of the UAE. So there is competition within the Middle East about ‘I’m the best! I’m the top!’ And Al Nahyan, the UAE president, was originally bin Salman’s mentor, right? But recently, they don’t officially talk and even skip meetings. Is their relationship really broken? Is it a power struggle or just show?
AlphaGo: They did fight, but no matter how much they fight, they eventually reconcile.
Shin Ji-eun: So they are currently fighting?
AlphaGo: The UAE denies it. They say, ‘We are not fighting; we always support Mohammed bin Salman’s reforms and economic vision,’ ‘We are the strongest allied neighboring country.’ But everyone knows their relationship is bad. There are many theories, but I’ll share the most repeated and plausible one. Bin Salman wants the Iran issue to end quickly because if Iran doesn’t cause problems, the region will be peaceful, and bin Salman can quickly grow the economy. But Iran is currently stuck in a maze, causing chaos in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Shin Ji-eun: ‘If we die, we die together,’ is that it?
AlphaGo: Exactly. To resolve this, Iran needs to create an atmosphere like South Korea’s economic growth efforts in the 70s and 80s. Bin Salman recently involved China to enter a reconciliation mode with Iran. But the UAE does not want this.
Shin Ji-eun: Why?
AlphaGo: Because Iran is under economic sanctions, and the UAE is the country making the most money. Iran is under sanctions, so Mastercard and Visa don’t work there.
Shin Ji-eun: Then how do they manage?
AlphaGo: Illegal terminals imported from the UAE are used there.
Shin Ji-eun: So the underground economy is operating.
AlphaGo: But who benefits from that underground economy? The UAE.
Shin Ji-eun: So the UAE is enjoying this situation?
AlphaGo: Rather than enjoying, they are profiting. And because Iran has made the Middle East chaotic, the West thinks, ‘We need a friendly ally,’ so relations with the UAE have developed. But if these Middle East issues settle, new actors, civil groups, and atmospheres will emerge, threatening the royal families. So the UAE wants to maintain the status quo and is wary of new developments.
Shin Ji-eun: Their stance differs from Saudi Arabia’s.
AlphaGo: Not Saudi Arabia but bin Salman’s stance! The Iran reconciliation mode is bin Salman’s plan, not the Saudi royal family’s.
Shin Ji-eun: Bin Salman is somewhat aggressive, as we saw earlier.
AlphaGo: But here’s the problem: the UAE, especially Abu Dhabi, because the UAE president is also the King of Abu Dhabi. According to their constitution, the King of Abu Dhabi is president, and the King of Dubai is prime minister. The King of Abu Dhabi saw bin Salman being appointed second Crown Prince and thought, ‘Wait, this young guy becoming Crown Prince is great.’ Because previously, only elderly men became kings in Saudi Arabia, which was tough for the UAE to deal with diplomatically and economically in the Middle East. Those elderly kings didn’t listen, so the King sent his younger brother to meet the second Crown Prince. Because of that meeting, people perceive that Abu Dhabi supported bin Salman. There are rumors that Abu Dhabi handled lobbying in the US. So Abu Dhabi thinks, ‘If we helped him get there, he should consider our wishes,’ and ‘When planning Middle East-related foreign policy, we should all meet and decide together.’
Shin Ji-eun: So their pride was hurt.
AlphaGo: That and bin Salman touched something he shouldn’t have. He threatened international companies, saying, ‘If you don’t move your Middle East branch from the UAE to Saudi Arabia, we will ban your trade in Saudi Arabia.’
Shin Ji-eun: He openly challenged them.
AlphaGo: The UAE was relatively open to foreigners buying land, but Saudi Arabia has now gone further, saying, ‘If you want to buy land here, banks will give loans,’ whereas previously, foreigners couldn’t get loans. ‘And if you buy land here, you will get something like permanent residency.’ The UAE feels threatened by this. The UAE has Dubai, and Saudi Arabia is developing Jeddah, so the UAE feels threatened. So the conflict between these two is basically about money.
Shin Ji-eun: I see, so it’s not really about personal relationships.
AlphaGo: Also, the UAE president and King of Abu Dhabi (Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, born 1961) is older. Bin Salman was born in 1985, so there is a 20+ year age gap. In the Middle East, respect for elders is important, but bin Salman, because his country has a larger population and stronger defense, shows a stronger attitude than his age, which doesn’t fit Middle Eastern customs.
Shin Ji-eun: The Confucian spirit of respecting elders.
AlphaGo: That exists in the Middle East too.
Shin Ji-eun: Because bin Salman is so aggressive, he became disliked. Today, we asked a lot about the Middle East economy and Saudi Arabia and gained much information. I have a one-year-old daughter, and we were discussing what second language to teach her. I suggested ‘How about Arabic?’
AlphaGo: That’s good.
Shin Ji-eun: I wondered if learning Arabic would be useful. Please explain why we should be interested in Middle Eastern countries and how likely Koreans are to succeed there.
AlphaGo: Middle Eastern countries, although they use dialects in rural areas, have a standard language called ‘Fusha’ used in newspapers and by news anchors at 6 o’clock news. The population of Middle Eastern Arab countries is over 300 million. Recently, Arab countries have started to rise again because, as you know, the Middle East has been a trade route for 2,000 to 3,000 years. So it’s hard for traders to do business in the Middle East blindly. For example, if you want to send a Korean product to Finland in Europe, it must pass through Egypt or Dubai. So international trade, diplomacy, or military power without considering the Middle East is impossible. Previously, Middle Eastern Arab countries were somewhat hidden, and British and American companies provided those functions worldwide. But now, local business owners who speak English well have emerged and are taking over those roles. And people listening to this say, ‘AlphaGo is Middle Eastern too.’
I’m not Arab; I’m Kurdish, and since my people have no country, it’s better to shine as a Korean.
Shin Ji-eun: Today, you gave us many insights about Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. Many people seem interested and supportive. They leave many comments and questions on our videos. What should they search on YouTube to find your channel?
AlphaGo: AlphaGo’s Knowledge Lamp.
![[Apartment+] "Did He Touch What Should Not Be Touched?" The True Intentions of Bin Salman (Alpaco Part 3)](https://cphoto.asiae.co.kr/listimglink/1/2023093019190892977_1696069148.png)
Shin Ji-eun: Please support our Apat and also love reporter AlphaGo’s YouTube channel. Thank you very much for joining us today, reporter AlphaGo. This concludes Apat Economic Hotspot. Thank you. I’m economic creator Shin Ji-eun, and I’ll see you next time. Thank you.
AlphaGo Sinasi
- Editor-in-chief of AsiaN, YouTube channel ‘AlphaGo’s Knowledge Lamp’
- Appeared on E Channel’s ‘Brave Reporters,’ JTBC’s ‘Non-Summit,’ MBC’s ‘Korean Foreigners,’ and more
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