[Global Issue+] Saudi Arabia Shaking Up Middle East Dynamics... Is the US Failing to Withdraw from the Middle East?

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Saudi Arabia, which was discussing normalization of relations with Israel, has sent a delegation to the Palestinian Authority for the first time in 30 years, drawing attention to the background. While pursuing normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel mediated by the United States, Saudi Arabia's move to strengthen diplomacy with Israel's adversary, Palestine, is interpreted as a gesture to pressure the U.S.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Earlier, Saudi Arabia increased pressure on the U.S. government by demanding approval of its nuclear enrichment program and the conclusion of a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia. As the U.S. political scene enters the election phase, Saudi Arabia's high oil price policy acts as a strong driver of inflation pressuring the Joe Biden administration, making it difficult for the U.S. government to reject Saudi Arabia's demands.

There are concerns that if the U.S. accepts Saudi Arabia's demands, the U.S.'s Middle East disengagement policy, which has lasted for more than 10 years since the Barack Obama administration, will be completely undermined.

Bin Salman Demands Two Birds with One Stone: Nuclear Enrichment and U.S. Defense Treaty Amid High Oil Price Pressure

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to AFP on the 29th (local time), on the 26th, a delegation led by Naif Al-Sudairi, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Jordan, visited Ramallah, the central city of the West Bank region of the Palestinian Authority, by land through Jordan.

Al-Sudairi, who was appointed last month as the non-resident Palestinian ambassador and concurrently as consul general in Jerusalem, paid a courtesy call on Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, and presented his credentials. In addition, Al-Sudairi met with senior Palestinian Authority officials, including Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki.

Just before presenting his credentials, Al-Sudairi told Palestinian officials, "Saudi Arabia is working for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital," and "I hope the next meeting will take place in Jerusalem." This was interpreted as a hope to open a consulate in Jerusalem.

He also commented on the issue of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, saying, "Seeking peace and stability between countries is universal," and emphasized, "The 'Arab Initiative' proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002 will be the pillar of the upcoming agreement." The 'Arab Initiative' is a proposal that the Arab world will recognize Israel as a state and establish diplomatic relations only if Israel stops occupying Palestinian territories seized during the 1967 Six-Day War.

Ultimately, this is seen as a reiteration of Saudi Arabia's existing position that normalization with Israel is possible only if Israel ceases its offensive against Palestine. The U.S. Middle East policy, which has been mediating normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, is expected to face significant difficulties going forward.

With the U.S. Election Phase Approaching... Is the Middle East Exit Strategy Falling Apart?

[Image source=Getty Images Yonhap News]

Saudi Arabia's open display of nuclear development intentions is also increasing calls for the U.S. to return to the Middle East. According to Bloomberg News, on the 20th, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman raised his voice in an interview with U.S. Fox News, stating that Saudi Arabia needs nuclear development in response to Iran's nuclear weapons.

When asked if he was worried about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, Crown Prince Bin Salman emphasized, "We are concerned about any country possessing nuclear weapons" and "If they (Iran) get them, we must have them too."

Earlier, Saudi Arabia reportedly demanded from the U.S. approval of a civilian nuclear enrichment program along with a mutual defense treaty at the level of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. For the U.S., which is entering the election phase in November next year, this means being forced again to pursue a Middle East return policy that is expected to consume enormous resources. From the Biden administration's perspective, reversing Saudi Arabia's high oil price policy is necessary to curb global inflation trends and to check Russia, which is earning massive war funds from oil imports, making it difficult to reject Saudi Arabia's proposal.

Inside and outside the U.S., there are forecasts that the Biden administration may make a major shift from its existing Middle East disengagement policy. The New York Times (NYT) pointed out, "The U.S.-Saudi relationship and U.S. Middle East policy, which were severely strained after the 2018 Jamal Khashoggi assassination, will inevitably undergo major revisions," and "A significant change is expected in the Biden administration's human rights-centered value diplomacy and Middle East disengagement policy."