[News in War History] Ukraine Where Babies' Cries Stopped... Birth Rate Became a Lifeline

War Causes 28% Drop in Ukraine Birth Rate
Low Birthrate Linked to National Survival Since Ancient Times
South Korea Has World's Lowest Birthrate Despite No War

Ukraine has reportedly experienced a nearly 30% decline in birth rates since the war, raising serious concerns about a severe population shortage. The war has already caused numerous casualties and refugees, with most women fleeing abroad to escape the conflict, making it difficult for birth rates to recover even during the post-war reconstruction period.

Similarly, Russia, which has long suffered from chronic labor shortages due to low birth rates, is facing a severe population problem as many men flee overseas to avoid military service, causing the economy to falter. Greater difficulties are expected in recruiting new soldiers to maintain the front lines, leading to reports of mercenaries being hired from Africa and the Middle East.

No matter how advanced weapons dominate the battlefield, war has always been a fight between people bearing arms since ancient times, so birth rates are still recognized as a matter directly linked to national defense. Especially in prolonged wars like the current Ukraine conflict, human resources are an irreplaceable and precious asset.

In this article, we will explore the current concerns about Ukraine's population cliff and examine how closely birth rates and national defense have been related throughout history.

◆News: Ukraine’s Newborns Drop 28%... Postwar Troop Shortage Concerns Deepen

On the 22nd (local time), a funeral ceremony for soldiers who died in the war was held at a cemetery near Kharkiv, Ukraine. [Image source=AFP·Yonhap News]

Let’s start with the news. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 26th (local time), the number of newborns in Ukraine from January to June this year was 96,755, a drop of more than 28% compared to the same period last year. The monthly average number of newborns, which was around 23,000, fell to about 16,000. Ukraine’s birth rate is also estimated to have dropped significantly from 1.30 in 2020 to 1.16 this year.

The Ukrainian government is already concerned about postwar troop shortages. With at least 500,000 casualties reported so far in the Ukraine war, over 6 million people have fled abroad, and more than 20% of the territory is occupied by Russia, making population and birth rate recovery extremely difficult.

Before the war, Ukraine had a population of about 44 million, but considering the population lost to Russia-occupied areas and those who evacuated abroad, the postwar population is expected to shrink to around 30 million. WSJ pointed out, "Most Ukrainians who fled abroad are women and children, and their chances of returning to Ukraine after the war are slim," adding, "Many Ukrainian men who were conscripted are likely to leave for overseas where their families have evacuated."

Russia is also reportedly struggling to recruit new soldiers due to low birth rates and young men fleeing abroad to avoid military service. According to CNN, Russia’s birth rate before the war was about 1.50, but approximately 1 million men have fled overseas since the Ukraine war began. With over 300,000 casualties reported in the Ukraine war, there are concerns that the birth rate will decline sharply.

◆History 1: 'Low Birth Rates' That Collapsed Military States Sparta and Rome

[Image source= Netflix]

Since ancient times, population and birth rates have been highly valued as indicators of a country’s military strength. There are cases where military states suffering from severe low birth rates failed to solve troop shortages and eventually collapsed. Ancient Sparta and the Roman Empire are representative examples.

In Sparta, known as a military state in ancient Greece, low birth rates seriously undermined military power and were cited as one of the causes of its downfall. Sparta was originally a strong nation with elite troops composed of citizens, and to prevent declining birth rates, it was famous for a harsh single tax that imposed 300% of the normal tax rate on unmarried people.

However, after Sparta defeated Athens in the Peloponnesian War in the 5th century BC, wealth became highly concentrated, worsening the low birth rate trend. About 100 aristocratic families monopolized land, and most citizens who formed the backbone of the Spartan army became too poor to raise children, deepening the low birth rate. As a result, Sparta, which once could mobilize over 30,000 citizen soldiers, struggled to muster even 1,000 in its later years. This military weakening was a major factor leading to its decline and collapse.

The Roman Empire, famous as a millennium empire, also faced serious social problems due to low birth rates. After unifying the Mediterranean region around the 1st century BC, the Roman Empire saw a sharp decline in birth rates due to extreme wealth disparity. To address this, Augustus, Rome’s first emperor, enacted laws preventing unmarried children from inheriting property and barred childless people from holding public office.

Despite these measures, the low birth rate trend worsened toward the empire’s end. Economic polarization and social unrest intensified, causing not only commoners but also nobles to avoid having children. Eventually, most national defense was entrusted to mercenaries from foreign tribes, who repeatedly rebelled, leading to the Roman Empire’s disappearance from history.

◆History 2: Prussia Abolished Laws on Adultery and Sexual Crimes

Portrait of Friedrich Wilhelm I.

After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe went through a chaotic medieval period during which population was directly linked to national power for a long time. This led some countries to adopt extraordinary methods to increase their populations, with the Kingdom of Prussia?considered the predecessor of modern Germany?being a prime example.

Until the early 18th century, Prussia’s population was only about 2 million. Considering that its rival France already had nearly 40 million people, Prussia’s population was severely insufficient. In 1688, Friedrich Wilhelm I ascended the Prussian throne and began implementing extreme population growth policies, insisting that the population must increase for national survival.

He enacted a law requiring men to have at least two wives and forced childbirth by the state. Even monks were compelled to return to secular life, marry, and have children. He also kidnapped tall men from across Europe to form a giant regiment, aiming to raise physically imposing soldiers for war, and forced them to marry many women and have children.

His son, Friedrich Wilhelm II, known in Germany as 'Frederick the Great,' went further by abolishing laws related to adultery and various sexual crimes, compelling the population to have children by any means. Thanks to these coercive population policies passed down through generations, combined with subsequent wars and territorial acquisitions, Prussia’s population nearly doubled in a short time, and its standing army grew from 40,000 to 80,000.

The concept of mass-producing soldiers like factory products was carried on by the German Empire and Nazi Germany. Before World War II, Nazi Germany was notorious for its strong birth enforcement policies. In 1935, it established the so-called 'Lebensborn' baby factories to significantly increase the population with Aryan genes, forcibly imprisoning and impregnating white women who met their criteria. The birth rate, which was about 1.59 in 1933 when Adolf Hitler came to power, rose to 2.59 just before the outbreak of World War II in 1939.

◆Implication: South Korea’s Birth Rate Lower Than Wartime Ukraine

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As these extreme historical cases show, population?the source of military power?has been emphasized since ancient times. Even in the current era dominated by advanced weapons and drones, human soldiers are absolutely necessary to occupy cities or regions and secure victory, making birth rates a matter directly linked to national security.

Considering this, South Korea’s population problem, with a birth rate even lower than wartime Ukraine, is truly serious. In the second quarter of this year, South Korea’s total fertility rate recorded 0.70, breaking the world’s lowest record once again. No other territorial country with a population over 10 million, excluding city-states, has ever reached this level, attracting global attention.

Despite its insufficient population, South Korea faces more complex security challenges than any other region in the world. Although over 95% of conscription-eligible men serve in the military, the low birth rate problem is so severe that troop shortages are occurring. This issue is not just about economic contraction but is directly linked to the nation’s survival, and our society as a whole needs to be reminded of this fact.